TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Red Bull Bragantino vs. São Paulo FC
Volume:
$190,110
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the professional Brasileiro Serie A soccer match between Red Bull Bragantino and São Paulo FC scheduled for March 15, 2026. Markets across Kalshi and Polymarket are tracking the final outcome (win/loss/draw) after 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, with no extra time or penalties considered.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi presents three markets with identical Yes-resolution logic without explicit mutual exclusivity, while Polymarket implements outcome-specific resolution with conflicting cancellation handling between the draw market and win markets.Hero Tip:
Assume Kalshi markets are mutually exclusive (standard for match outcomes) but request clarification. On Polymarket, cancellation risk is priced asymmetrically: the draw market benefits from cancellation (resolves Yes), while win markets suffer (resolve No). This creates a natural hedge if you are long draw and short both win markets.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Three separate markets each resolving to Yes upon their respective outcome occurring. Logical structure suggests mutual exclusivity (only one outcome per match), but resolution language does not explicitly state this. Key Quote: 'If Sao Paulo wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Tie wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Bragantino wins... then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Three outcome-specific markets with asymmetric cancellation rules. Draw market resolves Yes on cancellation; Win markets resolve No on cancellation. Key Quote: Draw market: 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to Yes.' Win markets: 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve No.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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