TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.8b
24H VOL:
$257,828,392
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,664,501
579,454
Markets across
14,299
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,106
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a Brazil Série A match between Red Bull Bragantino and Botafogo FR scheduled for March 21, 2026. Markets include total goals over/under at multiple thresholds (1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5), spread betting on both teams, and a both-teams-to-score prop.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use different threshold interpretations for total goals scored. Kalshi markets resolve YES when goals exceed the stated threshold (e.g., >3.5 means 4+), while Polymarket markets resolve Over when goals meet or exceed a different threshold (e.g., O/U 2.5 resolves Over at 3+), creating misaligned outcome boundaries for identical game scenarios.Hero Tip:
If you bet on Kalshi's >3.5 goals market (resolves YES at 4+ goals) versus Polymarket's O/U 2.5 (resolves Over at 3+ goals), a final score of exactly 3 goals will resolve NO on Kalshi but Over on Polymarket. Verify the exact threshold for each platform before placing bets on total goals markets.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Distinct stance: Kalshi uses strict greater-than thresholds (>1.5, >2.5, >3.5, >4.5) where YES resolves only when combined goals strictly exceed the stated number. For example, >3.5 resolves YES only if total goals is 4 or more. Quote: 'If Botafogo and Bragantino collectively score more than 3.5 total goals... then the market resolves to Yes.'Polymarket:
Distinct stance: Polymarket uses threshold-inclusive logic where Over/Under boundaries are set at round numbers (1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5) but resolve based on meeting or exceeding a derived goal count. For O/U 2.5, Over resolves at 3+ goals; for O/U 3.5, Over resolves at 4+ goals. Quote: 'This market will resolve to Over if Red Bull Bragantino and Botafogo FR combine to score 3 or more goals' (for O/U 2.5 market).
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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