TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
WMG above 10%
- Kalshi
WMG above 10% - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Aug 14, 2026
Closed: Aug 14, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the competitive performance of major music record labels during a specific week. It focuses on whether each label achieves predetermined market share thresholds based on their representation in popular music charts. The outcomes reflect the labels' influence and reach in the music industry for that period.
Kalshi
The event evaluates three separate market share conditions for major record labels—UMG, SME, and WMG—during the week ending August 13, 2026, using data from the Hits Daily Double: Hits Top 50 chart. Each market resolves independently based on whether the respective label’s share exceeds a specific threshold: UMG must hold more than 66%, SME more than 21%, and WMG more than 10%. Market share percentages are sourced from the Hits Daily Double: Hits Top 50 chart page for the relevant week, with the chart dated Thursday typically published on Friday. All markets operate independently, and none imply endorsement from the labels or Hits Daily Double. The rules emphasize that references to these entities are purely descriptive and do not suggest any affiliation or endorsement of the markets or associated products.
Frequently asked questions
Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds in this market often reflect a more immediate, crowd-sourced view of expectations for record label performance. While analysts may incorporate long-term trends and historical data, traders on Kalshi react in real time to new releases, streaming numbers, and media coverage, which can create divergence between the two.
This market resolves around Aug 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the weekly market share data for record labels is verifiable from credible public reporting sources. The final settlement will reflect the industry-measured market share percentages for the week ending Aug 13, 2026.
Key signals that could shift this market include major album releases, streaming service announcements, chart-topping singles, or significant label partnerships. Any unexpected market share shifts reported in the week leading up to Aug 13 may also cause rapid price changes, especially as traders adjust positions based on real-time data and news.
