TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$158,613,015
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,206,641,323
499,459
Markets across
13,676
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,789
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Athletic Club
Volume:
$851,855
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers three related prediction markets on the Real Sociedad vs. Athletic Club (Bilbao) Copa del Rey match scheduled for March 4, 2026. Markets track whether Real Sociedad wins, Athletic Club wins, or the match ends in a draw, all evaluated at the conclusion of 90 minutes plus stoppage time (regular play only).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Cancellation handling diverges between platforms. Kalshi lacks explicit cancellation rules; Polymarket applies asymmetric resolution (No for win markets, Yes for draw market if canceled entirely with no makeup).Hero Tip:
Monitor Copa del Rey scheduling announcements closely. On Polymarket, a Yes resolution on the draw market combined with No on both win markets would signal cancellation. On Kalshi, clarify the platform's cancellation protocol before settlement. Consider the draw market on Polymarket as a potential hedge against game cancellation risk.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Three separate binary markets: Real Sociedad win (Yes/No), draw (Yes/No), Athletic Club win (Yes/No). Win markets resolve No if canceled with no makeup; draw market resolves Yes if canceled with no makeup. All evaluate 90 minutes plus stoppage time only. Source: RFEF.
- Kalshi: Three markets presented as outcome-specific: Bilbao wins resolves Yes, Tie resolves Yes, Real Sociedad wins resolves Yes. No explicit cancellation clause. All evaluate 90 minutes plus stoppage time only. Ambiguous whether a canceled match triggers Yes or remains unresolved.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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