TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 28, 11:30 PM EST
Kalshi
This market assesses whether specific running backs will rank among the top performers in fantasy football points during Week 3 of the 2026 NFL season, using a full-point-per-reception scoring system that includes all statistical categories.
Each market resolves to 'Yes' if the named running back finishes within the top five in total full-PPR fantasy points for all eligible RBs in Week 3 of the 2026 NFL regular season, as calculated by Sleeper’s scoring system including overtime. Players who do not participate that week are treated as scoring zero points. Rankings include all eligible RBs, even those without a listed market, with player-group determination made by Sleeper at the time of market expiration. Dead-heat rules apply when multiple players tie for the qualifying position, with tied contracts settling proportionally (e.g., $0.50 each for two tied players). The scoring format awards points for passing, rushing, receiving, kicking, defense/special teams, and individual-player special teams/fumbles, with specific point values for yards, touchdowns, interceptions, and other statistical achievements as detailed in Sleeper’s default full-PPR system.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which can be influenced by house biases or initial public perception. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action, while this market allows traders to freely express their beliefs about player performance. If a significant discrepancy exists, arbitrage opportunities may arise, where traders can profit by simultaneously betting on both platforms. However, it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities, and neither guarantees an accurate prediction of the final top 5.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief in whether a player will be in the top 5. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, with higher prices indicating a greater perceived probability of that outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth shows the available contracts at different price points, illustrating the level of conviction among traders. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities accordingly.
This market resolves around Sep 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final fantasy football top 5 rankings are verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on standard fantasy football scoring rules, as determined by major fantasy sports providers. The market will determine which players ultimately achieve the highest fantasy point totals, solidifying the winning contracts. Traders should monitor official fantasy football results as the season progresses to stay informed about potential resolution triggers.
Player injuries are a major catalyst that could significantly shift the odds in this market. Unexpected breakouts from lesser-known players, or underperformance from established stars, will also drive price movements. News regarding team dynamics, coaching changes, or offensive scheme adjustments can influence player projections and therefore market prices. Strong or weak performances in upcoming games, particularly against tough opponents, will provide new data points for traders to assess. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding how this market evolves.