TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 28, 11:29 PM EST
Kalshi
This market determines which running back will achieve the highest fantasy points in a specific week using a points-per-reception scoring system. The outcome is based solely on individual player performance, with no ties resulting in split payouts.
Each market resolves based on whether the specified running back finishes highest in total full-PPR fantasy points for all RBs in Week 3 of the 2026 Pro Football regular season. Scoring follows Sleeper's default full-PPR system, which awards points for passing, rushing, receiving, kicking, and defensive performances. If a player does not participate in the week, they score zero points. In case of a tie for the highest points, the market resolves to 1/N, where N is the number of tied players, and no holder receives $1 minus the Yes payout. All players are ranked by Sleeper, including those without a listed market, with player-group membership determined at expiration. The scoring details include specific point values for yards, touchdowns, interceptions, two-point conversions, field goals, extra points, defensive plays, and special teams contributions.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often proving more accurate than traditional sportsbook odds, especially as event time approaches. Sportsbooks often incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, while this market allows traders to directly assess probabilities. However, initial sportsbook lines can sometimes influence early trading in this market, and discrepancies can emerge based on public perception or differing information. It’s common to see the probabilities implied by this market converge with sportsbook odds as the event nears, though differences can persist.
This market resolves around Sep 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official fantasy football results for Week 3 are verifiable from credible public reporting. The running back with the highest fantasy point total, as calculated by a major fantasy football provider, will be deemed the winner. The resolution will be based on standard fantasy scoring rules (PPR, Half-PPR, or Standard), as specified within the market details on Kalshi. The final price of the winning contract will determine the payout for those who correctly predicted the outcome.
Several factors could significantly shift the odds in this market. Injury reports are paramount; news of a key injury to a top running back will likely cause their contract price to fall and boost the prices of potential replacements. Changes in team offensive strategies or unexpected player usage patterns can also influence trading activity. Late-breaking news about weather conditions affecting game play, or even a notable coaching decision, could also move this market. Finally, large volume trades by informed participants can sometimes signal shifts in sentiment and trigger further price adjustments.