TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 21, 11:30 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets evaluates whether specific running backs will rank among the top five scorers in fantasy football points during Week 2 of the 2026 NFL regular season. Rankings are determined using standard full-PPR scoring rules, which reward receptions and yardage at a rate of 0.1 points per yard and include points from all eligible running backs, even those not explicitly listed in individual markets.
All markets resolve based on Sleeper's total full-PPR fantasy points for Week 2 of the 2026 NFL regular season, including overtime. Rankings consider all eligible running backs, regardless of whether they have an individual market. Players who do not participate in the week are treated as having scored zero points. If multiple players tie for the fifth position, contracts for all tied players settle at an equal fraction (1/N) of the total payout, where N is the number of tied players. Scoring follows Sleeper's standard full-PPR format, with points awarded for passing, rushing, receiving, kicking, and defensive performances as detailed in the secondary rules.
Often, prediction market odds reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd perspective that differs from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market represents the aggregate beliefs of informed traders. It’s common to see discrepancies, particularly early in the season, as this market can react quickly to new information and adjust probabilities based on evolving player performance and injury reports. Polls and analysts may also offer different perspectives, but this market provides a continuously updated, financially incentivized forecast.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether a particular player will be in the top 5. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more people buy a contract, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to efficiently aggregate information and generate a forecast.
This market resolves around Sep 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official NFL fantasy football top 5 players are verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on standard fantasy football scoring rules and rankings from a widely recognized source. The final standings will determine which contracts pay out, and the payout amount will reflect the price of the contract at the time of resolution. Traders should monitor the official NFL fantasy football results to understand the final outcome of this market.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Player injuries are a major catalyst, as the absence of key players can dramatically alter perceived rankings. Unexpected breakout performances from lesser-known players could also shift probabilities. News regarding player trades, coaching changes, or changes to fantasy football scoring rules could also influence trading activity. Additionally, weekly game results and expert analysis will contribute to evolving market sentiment, potentially leading to substantial price movements before Sep 22, 2026.