TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$133,388,117

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,436,095,462

405,232

Markets across

30,526

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Rainbow Six Siege: Outlast vs For Fun Esports (BO1) - North America League Stage 2 Group Stage
polymarket
kalshi

What is the result of Outlast vs For Fun Esports?

Volume:
$24,113

For Fun Esports

 - Kalshi

For Fun Esports - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 12, 2026

Closed: Sep 11, 6:19 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

For Fun Esports

View
100%
41%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$10,391
N/A
N/A
$7,827
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Outlast

View
0%
39%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$9,586
N/A
N/A
$7,410
Settled
No
polymarket

Match Winner

View
0%
33%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,136
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 3

Description

This prediction group concerns a single Rainbow Six Siege match between Outlast and For Fun Esports as part of the North America League Stage 2 Group Stage. The markets ask who will win the match, with provisions for cancellations, postponements, and forfeits.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi defines a 'Yes' outcome for either team winning, while Polymarket explicitly defines separate outcomes for each team.Hero tip: The markets are functionally equivalent, but Polymarket's wording is more precise. Consider this a minor difference in presentation rather than a fundamental disagreement.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: The market resolves to 'Outlast' if Outlast wins, and 'For Fun Esports' if For Fun Esports wins. This is a clear binary outcome definition. "If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50."
  • Kalshi: The market resolves to 'Yes' if either team wins. This is less explicit about the binary nature of the event. It doesn't explicitly state what happens in the event of a tie or cancellation.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market refers to the Rainbow Six Siege match between Outlast and For Fun Esports in the North America League Stage 2 Group Stage, initially scheduled for September 11, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Outlast" if Outlast win the match against For Fun Esports. This market will resolve to "For Fun Esports" if For Fun Esports win the match against Outlast. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 25, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 11, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://liquipedia.net/rainbowsix/Main_Page. However, if https://liquipedia.net/rainbowsix/Main_Page has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Kalshi

The market resolves to Yes if For Fun Esports wins the specified match, and to Yes if Outlast wins the same match. Should the match be postponed beyond 48 hours, cancelled pre-play, or forfeited before any action occurs, the market resolves to the fair market price. If the match begins and is later forfeited, resolution adheres to the official result from the governing body. Kalshi asserts no connection with the governing league, and all trademarks belong to their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the probability of different outcomes for the Rainbow Six Siege match between Outlast and For Fun Esports. Currently, Polymarket shows a consensus probability of around 96 for a specific outcome, while volume remains at $24,113. This allows users to see where the crowd believes the most likely result lies, and how that belief is changing over time. The aggregated view provides a comprehensive look at expectations for the match, combining insights from both platforms to give a broader perspective on the potential winner.

Prediction market odds, like those found on Polymarket and Kalshi, often reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd perspective, potentially differing from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks incorporate a profit margin into their odds, while prediction markets aim to represent the true probability of an event occurring. This market's pricing may be influenced by factors not fully captured by sportsbooks, such as nuanced team form or player availability. However, both types of odds can be valuable for informed decision-making, offering different angles on the same event.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Differences in user base, trading volume (currently $23,247), and market-making activity can all contribute to price discrepancies. Each platform attracts different types of traders with varying levels of expertise and information. Additionally, the specific market structures and fee schedules on Polymarket and Kalshi can influence trading behavior and, consequently, prices. These factors combine to create potentially different assessments of the likely outcome of the Rainbow Six Siege match.