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Rainbow Six Siege: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs FURIA Esports (BO1) - South America League Stage 1 Group Stage
polymarket
kalshi

Who will win Ninjas in Pyjamas vs FURIA Esports?

Volume:
$69,632

FURIA Esports

 - Kalshi

FURIA Esports - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 13, 2026

Closed: Jul 12, 6:19 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

FURIA Esports

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$31,590
N/A
N/A
$20,041
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Ninjas in Pyjamas

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$31,212
N/A
N/A
$23,364
Settled
No
polymarket

Match Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,829
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 3

Description

This event group covers a best-of-one Rainbow Six Siege match between Ninjas in Pyjamas and FURIA Esports in the South America League Stage 1 Group Stage, originally scheduled for July 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET. Two prediction markets (Polymarket and Kalshi) are tracking the outcome of this single esports competition.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket defines a categorical resolution (winner name or 50-50) with comprehensive edge-case rules, while Kalshi uses a binary Yes/No structure that does not explicitly address cancellations, ties, or forfeits. This creates different settlement outcomes for non-standard match conclusions.Hero tip: Polymarket traders have clear protection on edge cases (50-50 on cancel/forfeit). Kalshi traders face undefined resolution if the match does not complete decisively. Before trading Kalshi, confirm whether a canceled or forfeited match resolves to No or is voided.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to team name (NiP or FURIA) if match completes with a winner. Resolves 50-50 if canceled, ends in tie, delayed >7 days without winner, or forfeited/disqualified before start. Resolves to winning team if match begins but one team forfeits mid-match. Source: Liquipedia within 2 hours, or credible consensus if delayed. Key quote: 'If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.'
  • Kalshi: Resolves to Yes if FURIA wins the match OR if NiP wins the match. No explicit edge-case rules provided for cancellation, tie, forfeit, or delay. Binary Yes/No structure implies Yes only on decisive match completion, but No resolution path is undefined. Key quote: 'If FURIA Esports wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Ninjas in Pyjamas wins... then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market refers to the Rainbow Six Siege match between Ninjas in Pyjamas and FURIA Esports in the South America League Stage 1 Group Stage, initially scheduled for July 12 at 5:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Ninjas in Pyjamas" if Ninjas in Pyjamas win the match against FURIA Esports. This market will resolve to "FURIA Esports" if FURIA Esports win the match against Ninjas in Pyjamas. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://liquipedia.net/rainbowsix/Main_Page. However, if https://liquipedia.net/rainbowsix/Main_Page has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the outcome of the South America League Stage 1 2026 Rainbow Six Siege match between FURIA Esports and Ninjas in Pyjamas scheduled for July 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT. The market resolves to Yes for whichever team wins the match.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi differ from traditional sportsbooks in that traders themselves set odds through supply and demand, rather than oddsmakers posting fixed lines. This market-driven approach often reflects sharper, more dynamic pricing—especially as match time approaches and new information emerges. Sportsbooks typically include built-in margins and may move slower to adjust for breaking news. Prediction market odds tend to converge toward true probability over time, making them valuable benchmarks for comparing against locked-in sportsbook lines.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Platform differences in user base, liquidity depth, fee structures, and settlement rules can create temporary price gaps. Polymarket may attract traders with different risk appetites or information than Kalshi, leading to divergent implied probabilities. Arbitrage opportunities arise when one platform prices a team significantly higher or lower; however, transaction costs and withdrawal delays can prevent instant convergence. These spreads typically narrow as the match approaches and more capital flows to the more accurate pricing.

Key catalysts include roster changes, player injuries, or unexpected roster substitutions announced before match day. Recent team performance, head-to-head records, and scrim results shared on social media can shift trader sentiment. Map pool announcements and bans may favor one team's playstyle, triggering repricing. Betting action from professional esports syndicates or high-volume traders can also move odds sharply. News of technical issues, venue changes, or scheduling delays could introduce volatility in the final hours before the match begins.