TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$134,145,987

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,441,166,947

406,422

Markets across

30,383

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,688

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Rainbow Six Siege: M80 vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North America League Stage 2 Group Stage
polymarket
kalshi

What is the result of M80 vs Shopify Rebellion?

Volume:
$21,642

Shopify Rebellion

 - Kalshi

Shopify Rebellion - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 9, 2026

Closed: Sep 9, 5:22 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Shopify Rebellion

View
100%
38%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$9,710
N/A
N/A
$7,441
Settled
Yes
kalshi

M80

View
0%
56%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,245
N/A
N/A
$6,735
Settled
No
polymarket

Match Winner

View
0%
53%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,687
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 3

Description

This prediction group concerns a single Rainbow Six Siege match between M80 and Shopify Rebellion as part of the North America League Stage 2 Group Stage. The markets aim to predict which team will win the best-of-one match.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi defines a 'Yes' outcome for either team winning, creating ambiguity and collapsing the market into a single payout regardless of which team wins.Hero tip: Be aware that on Kalshi, a win by either team will yield the same payout. Polymarket provides a more granular outcome distinction.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to M80 if M80 wins, Shopify Rebellion if Shopify Rebellion wins, and 50-50 for cancellation or tie. "This market will resolve to 'M80' if M80 win the match against Shopify Rebellion."
  • Kalshi: Resolves to 'Yes' if either Shopify Rebellion or M80 wins. "If Shopify Rebellion wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If M80 wins...then the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market refers to the Rainbow Six Siege match between M80 and Shopify Rebellion in the North America League Stage 2 Group Stage, initially scheduled for September 9, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "M80" if M80 win the match against Shopify Rebellion. This market will resolve to "Shopify Rebellion" if Shopify Rebellion win the match against M80. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 23, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 9, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://liquipedia.net/rainbowsix/Main_Page. However, if https://liquipedia.net/rainbowsix/Main_Page has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Kalshi

The market resolves to Yes if either Shopify Rebellion or M80 wins the specified Rainbow Six Siege match. If the match is postponed beyond 48 hours, cancelled, or forfeited before play begins, the market resolves to the fair market price. If the match starts and is later forfeited, resolution follows the governing body's official result.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the probability of different outcomes in the Rainbow Six Siege match between M80 and Shopify Rebellion. Currently, the consensus view across these platforms indicates a strong likelihood of one outcome, with Polymarket showing a chance of 92. Total volume for this market is $21,642, and the 24-hour volume is $21,371. This allows traders to express their beliefs about which team will win this best-of-one match in the North America League Stage 2 Group Stage, and see how those beliefs compare to others.

Prediction market odds, like those found on Polymarket and Kalshi, often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while prediction markets aggregate diverse opinions. This can lead to discrepancies, especially when public sentiment strongly diverges from expert analysis. It’s important to compare both to gain a comprehensive understanding of the expected outcome of this market. The current volume of $21,642 suggests moderate interest in this particular match.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can differ due to variations in user base, trading activity, and platform-specific rules. Polymarket might attract a different demographic of traders than Kalshi, leading to differing opinions reflected in the prices. Furthermore, the liquidity and volume on each platform can influence price discovery. While Polymarket currently favors one outcome, Kalshi may show a different distribution of probabilities. These factors contribute to the dynamic pricing observed across these prediction markets for the Rainbow Six Siege match.