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Rainbow Six Siege: LOUD vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - South America League Stage 1 Playoffs
kalshi
polymarket

Who will win LOUD vs Ninjas in Pyjamas?

Volume:
$36,239

Ninjas in Pyjamas

 - Kalshi

Ninjas in Pyjamas - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 22, 2026

Closed: Jul 22, 3:49 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Ninjas in Pyjamas

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$21,622
N/A
N/A
$16,529
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Game 1 Winner

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$54
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

LOUD

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$12,464
N/A
N/A
$8,034
Settled
No
polymarket

Match Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,899
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Game Handicap: NIP (-1.5) vs LOUD (+1.5)

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$130
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Game 2 Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$70
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Games

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 7

Description

This event group covers a Rainbow Six Siege best-of-three match between LOUD and Ninjas in Pyjamas in the South America League Stage 1 Playoffs, originally scheduled for July 22, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET. Markets span individual game winners (Game 1, Game 2), series winner, games total over/under 2.5, and a game handicap bet on NIP (-1.5).

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's binary market contains a logical contradiction where both possible match outcomes (NIP wins or LOUD wins) are mapped to the same resolution state (Yes), making the market fundamentally unresolvable. Polymarket defines five coherent, granular markets with explicit edge-case handling.Hero tip: Kalshi's market is logically broken and should not be traded in its current form. Polymarket's markets are well-defined and resolvable. If you hold Kalshi positions, escalate to support for clarification before the match begins. Polymarket offers the safer trading venue for this event group.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Five distinct markets with granular resolution: Game 1 Winner, Game 2 Winner, Series Winner, Games Total O/U 2.5, and Game Handicap NIP (-1.5) vs LOUD (+1.5). Series winner resolves 50-50 on cancellation, tie, or >7 day delay without play. Individual games resolve 50-50 if not completed. Games Total and Handicap count forfeits/walkovers if match completes, but resolve 50-50 if match incomplete or canceled. Primary source: Liquipedia, with 2-hour fallback to credible reporting and video evidence.
  • Kalshi: Single binary market with contradictory resolution logic: 'If Ninjas in Pyjamas wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If LOUD wins... then the market resolves to Yes.' Both possible outcomes map to Yes, creating a logical impossibility. No edge-case handling, no cancellation clause, no source specified.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market refers to the Rainbow Six Siege 5th place decider match between LOUD and Ninjas in Pyjamas in the South America League Stage 1 Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 22 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "LOUD" if LOUD win the match against Ninjas in Pyjamas. This market will resolve to "Ninjas in Pyjamas" if Ninjas in Pyjamas win the match against LOUD. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://liquipedia.net/rainbowsix/Main_Page. However, if https://liquipedia.net/rainbowsix/Main_Page has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the official result of the complete match. If the match is postponed and not completed within 48 hours of the originally scheduled start time, or if it is cancelled before play begins, or if it is forfeited before any play occurs, the market resolves to the fair market price. If the match begins and is subsequently forfeited, resolution follows the official result published by the governing body or tournament organizer.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates prediction market data across Polymarket and Kalshi for the LOUD vs NiP Rainbow Six Siege match, allowing traders to monitor real-time odds on match outcomes. The cross-platform view captures how each venue prices the same event, revealing consensus expectations and divergence between communities. Traders use this data to compare valuations, identify arbitrage opportunities, and track how sentiment shifts as the playoff stage approaches. Total volume across both platforms reflects the combined interest in this South America League matchup.

Prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks price events differently because they operate under distinct incentive structures. Sportsbooks set odds to balance their book and lock in profit margins, while prediction markets derive prices from continuous trader participation and real-money stakes. This market aggregates odds from multiple prediction venues, which often reflect sharper, less-biased estimates than sportsbooks because traders face direct financial consequences for mispricing. Comparing the two can reveal where public perception diverges from market-derived consensus on this playoff matchup.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and risk tolerances, leading to price variations even for the same underlying event. Polymarket and Kalshi may also enforce different market structures, fee schedules, or settlement rules that influence how participants value outcomes. Arbitrage traders exploit these gaps, but temporary spreads persist due to withdrawal friction, platform-specific regulations, and varying trader conviction across venues. Monitoring both prices helps identify which platform's community is more confident in a particular outcome for this matchup.

Team roster changes, player injuries, recent performance trends, and playoff bracket positioning can all shift trader expectations before the match begins. Public statements from team management, coaching changes, or strategic meta shifts in the competitive Rainbow Six scene may influence odds. Betting activity itself can move prices as large trades signal conviction or hedge existing positions. Monitor official league announcements, team social media, and esports news outlets for developments that could reshape how traders price this playoff encounter.