TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,324,530

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,434,646,834

406,019

Markets across

30,401

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Rainbow Six Siege: LOUD vs Black Dragons e-Sports (BO1) - South America League Stage 1 Group Stage
polymarket
kalshi

Who will win LOUD vs Black Dragons e-Sports?

Volume:
$15,551

LOUD

 - Kalshi

LOUD - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 4, 2026

Closed: Jul 4, 12:59 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

LOUD

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$7,567
N/A
N/A
$5,515
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Match Winner

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$3,637
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Black Dragons e-Sports

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,347
N/A
N/A
$3,882
Settled
No
Total markets: 3

Description

This event group covers a best-of-one Rainbow Six Siege match between LOUD and Black Dragons e-Sports in the South America League Stage 1 Group Stage, originally scheduled for July 4, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Both Polymarket and Kalshi have created markets to predict the winner of this competitive esports match.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's resolution criteria contains a logical contradiction where both possible match outcomes (Black Dragons win OR LOUD win) resolve to Yes, with no specified No condition. This makes the market fundamentally unresolvable as a binary contract.Hero tip: Do not trade on Kalshi until the platform clarifies the intended resolution logic. The current rule set is internally contradictory and cannot produce a valid settlement. Polymarket's market is well-specified and should be the primary trading venue.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Clear binary resolution: LOUD wins resolves to LOUD, Black Dragons wins resolves to Black Dragons e-Sports. Tie, cancellation, forfeit, or 7+ day delay resolves to 50-50. Source: Liquipedia with 2-hour fallback to credible reporting.
  • Kalshi: Contradictory dual-affirmative logic: both Black Dragons victory AND LOUD victory resolve to Yes. No valid No outcome is specified, making settlement impossible.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market refers to the Rainbow Six Siege match between LOUD and Black Dragons e-Sports in the South America League Stage 1 Group Stage, initially scheduled for July 4 at 12:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "LOUD" if LOUD win the match against Black Dragons e-Sports. This market will resolve to "Black Dragons e-Sports" if Black Dragons e-Sports win the match against LOUD. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://liquipedia.net/rainbowsix/Main_Page. However, if https://liquipedia.net/rainbowsix/Main_Page has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the final result of the Black Dragons e-Sports vs. LOUD Rainbow Six Siege match scheduled for July 4, 2026 at 12:00 PM EDT as part of the South America League Stage 1 2026. The market resolves to Yes for whichever team wins the match.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like those tracked here operate on peer-to-peer trading rather than fixed odds set by a sportsbook. On Polymarket and Kalshi, prices emerge from continuous buying and selling by traders worldwide, often reflecting sharper, more dynamic assessments than traditional sportsbooks. Prediction market odds tend to update faster in response to new information and can offer better value during volatile periods. However, sportsbooks may offer tighter spreads and faster payouts. Comparing this market's consensus price to major sportsbook lines can reveal where smart money is positioning ahead of the match.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and regulatory frameworks, which can cause temporary price gaps. Polymarket and Kalshi may also settle outcomes using slightly different verification timelines or data sources, creating arbitrage opportunities. Differences in trading fees, user interface design, and promotional incentives can shift where informed traders concentrate their capital. These spreads typically narrow as the event date approaches and information becomes more certain, but they persist because traders on each platform operate independently and face different constraints.

Key catalysts include roster announcements, recent tournament results, head-to-head performance data, and any roster changes or injuries affecting either team. Patch updates to Rainbow Six Siege itself can shift meta strategy and team preparation timelines. Community sentiment, expert predictions, and betting volume spikes on competing platforms often precede sharp price moves. Scrim results or practice footage leaked before the match can also trigger repricing. Monitor esports news outlets and team social media for announcements that might reveal tactical shifts or confidence levels, as these often drive meaningful adjustments in this market's odds.