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Rainbow Six Siege: FURIA Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - South America League Stage 1 Playoffs
kalshi
polymarket

Who will win FURIA Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas?

Volume:
$146,840

FURIA Esports

 - Kalshi

FURIA Esports - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 17, 2026

Closed: Jul 16, 10:49 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

FURIA Esports

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$68,361
N/A
N/A
$39,946
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Match Winner

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$7,895
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Game 1 Winner

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$245
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Games

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Ninjas in Pyjamas

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$69,962
N/A
N/A
$46,990
Settled
No
polymarket

Game 2 Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$298
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Game Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (+1.5)

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$75
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 7

Description

A best-of-three esports match between FURIA Esports and Ninjas in Pyjamas in Rainbow Six Siege's South America League Stage 1 Playoffs, scheduled for July 16, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET. Multiple prediction markets track the series outcome, individual game winners, game count, and handicap spreads across Polymarket and Kalshi platforms.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All Polymarket markets and the Kalshi binary match outcome market share identical resolution sources, timing windows, and edge-case handling for cancellations, delays, and forfeits.Primary resolution logic: Liquipedia (https://liquipedia.net/rainbowsix/Main_Page); credible consensus reporting with video evidence if Liquipedia does not publish final results within 2 hours of event conclusion.

Core resolution logic:

  • Match must be completed (all required games played to determine a winner) within 7 days of the scheduled date (July 16, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET).
  • Game 1 and Game 2 winner markets resolve based on the winner of the respective individual game if that game is completed.
  • Series winner market resolves to the team winning the best-of-three (first to 2 games).
  • Games Total O/U 2.5 resolves Over if 3 or more games are played, Under if fewer than 3 games are played.
  • Game Handicap (FURIA -1.5 vs NiP +1.5) resolves to FURIA if they win 2 or more games than NiP; otherwise to NiP.
  • Forfeits, disqualifications, walkovers, and defaults count as completed games for series and handicap resolution, provided the match is completed.
  • If the clinching game is forfeited, the match counts as completed and resolves accordingly.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Match Canceled or Not Played: If the match is canceled entirely or delayed beyond 7 days from July 16, 2026 without play beginning, all markets resolve 50-50.
  • Incomplete Game: If Game 1 or Game 2 begins but is not completed, that game's market resolves 50-50. If the series is incomplete due to match abandonment mid-series, the series winner market resolves 50-50.
  • Forfeit or Disqualification Mid-Series: If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to opponent forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover before the series is decided, the series winner market resolves 50-50. However, if a team forfeits the clinching game, the match is considered completed and resolves to the winning team.
  • Tie or Draw: If the match ends in a tie or draw, all markets resolve 50-50.
  • Team Name Discrepancies: Minor spelling variations, abbreviations, sponsor tags, or formatting differences in team names are treated as referring to the same team; resolution is based on the underlying real-world match outcome, not exact name matching.
Timing: Resolution occurs within 2 hours after the match concludes on or before July 23, 2026 (7 days from scheduled date). If Liquipedia does not publish within 2 hours, credible consensus reporting with video evidence is used. Markets resolve 50-50 if the match is not completed within the 7-day window.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market refers to the Rainbow Six Siege Upper bracket semifinal 2 match between FURIA Esports and Ninjas in Pyjamas in the South America League Stage 1 Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 16 at 8:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "FURIA Esports" if FURIA Esports win the match against Ninjas in Pyjamas. This market will resolve to "Ninjas in Pyjamas" if Ninjas in Pyjamas win the match against FURIA Esports. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://liquipedia.net/rainbowsix/Main_Page. However, if https://liquipedia.net/rainbowsix/Main_Page has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the official match result published by the governing body or tournament organizer. If the match is postponed and not completed within 48 hours of the originally scheduled start time (July 16, 2026 at 8:00 PM EDT), the market resolves to the fair market price. If the match is cancelled before play begins or forfeited before any play occurs, the market resolves to the fair market price. If the match begins and is subsequently forfeited, the market resolves according to the official result published by the governing body or tournament organizer.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like those tracked here operate on real-money trading rather than fixed odds set by a bookmaker. Participants buy and sell shares tied to outcomes, and the market price reflects the collective belief of all traders. Unlike traditional sportsbooks, which adjust lines to manage liability, prediction markets are purely driven by supply and demand. This often produces sharper, more efficient pricing—especially for niche esports events where sportsbook coverage is sparse. However, prediction market liquidity can be lower, so slippage on large trades may differ from mainstream betting venues.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, fee structures, and user interfaces, which can lead to temporary pricing gaps on the same outcome. Polymarket and Kalshi may also have different market formats—one might focus on match winner while the other emphasizes game totals—creating natural divergence in how the event is priced. Regulatory differences, deposit methods, and withdrawal timelines can also influence where traders choose to position capital. Savvy traders monitor both venues to identify arbitrage opportunities before prices converge closer to the match start.

Key catalysts include recent match results and head-to-head records between the teams, roster announcements or player substitutions, injury or availability updates, and community sentiment shifts on social media and esports forums. Pre-match interviews, coach statements, or leaked scrim results can also influence trader positioning. Broader esports news—such as meta shifts in Rainbow Six Siege or changes to tournament format—may sway expectations. As the match date approaches, any odds movement on related markets or major sportsbook line changes could trigger repricing across prediction venues.