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Rainbow Six Siege: Five Fears vs Wildcard Gaming (BO1) - North America League Stage 1 Group Stage
kalshi
polymarket

Who will win Five Fears vs Wildcard Gaming?

Volume:
$17,090

Five Fears

 - Kalshi

Five Fears - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 2, 2026

Closed: Jul 2, 3:19 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Five Fears

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$7,081
N/A
N/A
$5,765
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Match Winner

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$3,747
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Wildcard Gaming

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,261
N/A
N/A
$4,063
Settled
No
Total markets: 3

Description

This event group covers a single Rainbow Six Siege match between Five Fears and Wildcard Gaming in the North America League Stage 1 Group Stage, scheduled for July 2, 2026 at 2:00 PM EDT. The match is a best-of-one (BO1) format, and markets across platforms are betting on which team will win.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's market contains a logical contradiction where both possible match outcomes (Wildcard Gaming win or Five Fears win) are mapped to the same resolution (Yes), making the market fundamentally unresolvable and unable to differentiate between the two teams.Hero tip: Treat Kalshi's market as broken and non-tradeable. Polymarket's binary structure is the only reliable settlement framework. If forced to choose, use Polymarket exclusively and flag Kalshi for removal or correction.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Both conditional branches resolve to Yes. If Wildcard Gaming wins → Yes. If Five Fears wins → Yes. This creates a logical impossibility where no outcome can distinguish between the two teams, rendering the market unresolvable.
  • Polymarket: Clear binary resolution: Five Fears win → resolves to Five Fears; Wildcard Gaming win → resolves to Wildcard Gaming. Cancellations, ties, delays beyond 7 days, or pre-match forfeits resolve to 50-50. Forfeits after match start resolve to the winning team. Source: Liquipedia with 2-hour fallback to credible reporting.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market refers to the Rainbow Six Siege match between Five Fears and Wildcard Gaming in the North America League Stage 1 Group Stage, initially scheduled for July 2 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Five Fears" if Five Fears win the match against Wildcard Gaming. This market will resolve to "Wildcard Gaming" if Wildcard Gaming win the match against Five Fears. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://liquipedia.net/rainbowsix/Main_Page. However, if https://liquipedia.net/rainbowsix/Main_Page has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the outcome of the Wildcard Gaming vs. Five Fears Rainbow Six Siege match scheduled for July 2, 2026 at 2:00 PM EDT during the North America League Stage 1 2026 season. The market resolves Yes for whichever team wins the match.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets and sportsbooks price events differently because they operate under distinct incentive structures. Sportsbooks set odds to balance liability and extract a margin, while prediction markets aggregate trader beliefs through continuous price discovery. This market reflects pure trader conviction without a built-in spread, potentially offering sharper odds than traditional sportsbooks. However, sportsbook odds benefit from professional oddsmaking expertise and real-time adjustment to sharp action, whereas prediction market prices depend on participant volume and information flow.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform operates distinct order-matching engines, fee structures, and user bases, which can create temporary price gaps. Kalshi's regulatory framework and user demographics may attract different trader profiles than Polymarket's global audience. Liquidity concentration also varies—if one platform has deeper order books, prices may reflect fresher information or faster adjustment to news. These differences typically narrow as arbitrageurs exploit spreads, but during low-volume periods or rapid market moves, divergence can persist.

Key catalysts include roster changes or player substitutions announced by either team, recent performance trends in league play, and head-to-head historical matchups. Injury reports or coaching adjustments can shift trader sentiment significantly. Pre-match media coverage, team statements, and scrim results often influence positioning in the final hours. Additionally, broader esports news—such as sponsorship changes or organizational restructuring—may indirectly affect team morale and performance expectations, prompting repricing across both platforms.