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405,232

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2,693

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Rainbow Six Siege: Black Dragons e-Sports vs LOUD (BO1) - South America League Stage 2 Group Stage
kalshi
polymarket

What is the result of Black Dragons e-Sports vs LOUD?

Volume:
$16,758

Black Dragons e-Sports

 - Kalshi

Black Dragons e-Sports - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 26, 2026

Closed: Sep 26, 1:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Black Dragons e-Sports

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$8,979
N/A
N/A
$5,624
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Match Winner

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$2,556
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

LOUD

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,223
N/A
N/A
$4,597
Settled
No
Total markets: 3

Description

This prediction group concerns a single Rainbow Six Siege match between Black Dragons e-Sports and LOUD in the South America League Stage 2 Group Stage. The markets ask who will win the match, with provisions for cancellations, postponements, and forfeits.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi defines a 'Yes' outcome for either team winning, while Polymarket has separate outcomes for each team.Hero tip: Kalshi's market is effectively a 'will either team win?' market, while Polymarket's is a direct win prediction. Be mindful of this when interpreting probabilities.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to Black Dragons if they win, LOUD if they win, and 50-50 for cancellations or ties. "This market will resolve to "Black Dragons e-Sports" if Black Dragons e-Sports win the match against LOUD."
  • Kalshi: Resolves to 'Yes' if either LOUD or Black Dragons e-Sports wins. "If LOUD wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Black Dragons e-Sports wins...then the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market refers to the Rainbow Six Siege match between Black Dragons e-Sports and LOUD in the South America League Stage 2 Group Stage, initially scheduled for September 26, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Black Dragons e-Sports" if Black Dragons e-Sports win the match against LOUD. This market will resolve to "LOUD" if LOUD win the match against Black Dragons e-Sports. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 10, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 26, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://liquipedia.net/rainbowsix/Main_Page. However, if https://liquipedia.net/rainbowsix/Main_Page has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on the result of the LOUD versus Black Dragons e-Sports Rainbow Six Siege match scheduled for September 26, 2026, at 12:00 PM EDT, within the South America League Stage 2 2026. If either team wins the match as the governing body or tournament organizer officially reports, the corresponding market resolves to Yes. Should the match be postponed beyond 48 hours of its original start time, cancelled before play begins, or forfeited prior to any gameplay, the market resolves to the fair market price. If the match starts but is later forfeited, the resolution follows the official result declared by the league authorities. Kalshi clarifies it holds no affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the consensus view on the outcome of the Rainbow Six Siege match. Currently, the aggregated volume across both platforms is $16,758, with $16,693 traded in the last 24 hours. The current market indicates a strong expectation for one outcome, with Polymarket showing a probability of approximately 89% for a specific result. This dashboard provides a real-time overview of how traders are pricing the likelihood of different scenarios in the Rainbow Six Siege match, offering a unique perspective beyond traditional odds.

Prediction market odds, like those found on Polymarket and Kalshi, often reflect a different kind of wisdom than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while prediction markets aggregate the beliefs of a diverse group of traders. This can lead to discrepancies, especially when information is asymmetric or public sentiment diverges from expert analysis. In some cases, prediction markets have proven to be more accurate forecasters of event outcomes than traditional betting markets, particularly when there is significant public interest in this market. However, sportsbooks generally offer more competitive pricing on simpler outcomes.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Each platform has its own user base, trading dynamics, and fee structure, which can influence price discovery. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Furthermore, differing liquidity levels on each platform can also contribute to price discrepancies. Currently, Polymarket currently favors a specific outcome, while Kalshi leans toward another, reflecting different trader sentiment. These differences highlight the importance of considering multiple sources of information when evaluating the potential outcome of the Rainbow Six Siege match.