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Rainbow Six Siege: 100 Thieves vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North America League Stage 2 Group Stage
kalshi
polymarket

What is the result of 100 Thieves vs Shopify Rebellion?

Volume:
$22,333

100 Thieves

 - Kalshi

100 Thieves - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 17, 2026

Closed: Sep 17, 4:49 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

100 Thieves

View
100%
69%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$8,103
N/A
N/A
$6,904
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Match Winner

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,871
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Shopify Rebellion

View
0%
74%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$12,359
N/A
N/A
$9,804
Settled
No
Total markets: 3

Description

This prediction market concerns a single Rainbow Six Siege match between 100 Thieves and Shopify Rebellion in the North America League Stage 2 Group Stage. The market asks who will win the match, with a contingency for cancellations or incomplete matches.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's resolution logic is a simple 'match played' indicator, while Polymarket specifies win conditions, a tie/cancellation rule, and a postponement deadline.Hero tip: Focus on Polymarket for a direct prediction of the match winner. Kalshi's market is less useful as it doesn't differentiate between outcomes.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to '100 Thieves' if they win, 'Shopify Rebellion' if they win, or 50-50 for cancellation/tie. Postponement deadline of October 1, 2026. "This market will resolve to "100 Thieves" if 100 Thieves win the match against Shopify Rebellion."
  • Kalshi: Resolves to 'Yes' if either Shopify Rebellion or 100 Thieves win. "If Shopify Rebellion wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If 100 Thieves wins...then the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market refers to the Rainbow Six Siege match between 100 Thieves and Shopify Rebellion in the North America League Stage 2 Group Stage, initially scheduled for September 17, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "100 Thieves" if 100 Thieves win the match against Shopify Rebellion. This market will resolve to "Shopify Rebellion" if Shopify Rebellion win the match against 100 Thieves. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 1, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 17, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://liquipedia.net/rainbowsix/Main_Page. However, if https://liquipedia.net/rainbowsix/Main_Page has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Kalshi

The market resolves to Yes if the specified team wins the exact North America League Stage 2 2026 match occurring on Sep 17, 2026 at the stated time. If the match is postponed beyond 48 hours, cancelled before play, or forfeited prior to any action, the market settles at fair market price. If play commences and is later forfeited, resolution follows the governing body's official result.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds, like those found on Polymarket and Kalshi, often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set odds based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while prediction markets are driven by individuals directly expressing their beliefs. This market’s odds can be influenced by factors not fully captured by sportsbook algorithms, such as real-time information or subtle team dynamics. Comparing these odds can provide a more comprehensive view of the expected outcome.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi may differ due to variations in trader demographics, market design, and the volume of trading activity on each platform. Polymarket might attract a different type of trader than Kalshi, leading to differing opinions reflected in the prices. Additionally, the liquidity, represented by the 24-hour volume of $20,042, can affect price discovery. These factors contribute to the possibility of price discrepancies even though both platforms are tracking the same Rainbow Six Siege match.

Several factors could influence the trading activity and price movement in this market. Any news regarding player form, team strategies, or roster changes for either 100 Thieves or Shopify Rebellion could significantly impact predictions. Unexpected announcements about map picks or bans could also shift probabilities. Furthermore, general sentiment within the Rainbow Six Siege esports community, as reflected on social media and streaming platforms, can influence trader behavior and move the market. Major upsets in other matches leading up to this one could also affect confidence in either team.