TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$113,466,932

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,423,222,590

402,751

Markets across

30,217

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,632

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Rainbow Six Siege: 100 Thieves vs For Fun Esports (BO1) - North America League Stage 1 Group Stage
kalshi
polymarket

Who will win 100 Thieves vs For Fun Esports?

Volume:
$59,430

100 Thieves

 - Kalshi

100 Thieves - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 27, 2026

Closed: Jun 26, 7:39 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

100 Thieves

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$30,130
N/A
N/A
$19,594
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Match Winner

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$9,913
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

For Fun Esports

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$19,387
N/A
N/A
$12,110
Settled
No
Total markets: 3

Description

This market group covers a single Rainbow Six Siege match between 100 Thieves and For Fun Esports in the North America League Stage 1 Group Stage, scheduled for June 26, 2026 at 6:00 PM EDT. The match is a best-of-one (BO1) format, and resolution depends on which team wins the match or whether the match is canceled, delayed, or forfeited.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi provides minimal resolution logic covering only win scenarios, while Polymarket explicitly defines edge cases including cancellations, forfeits, ties, and delays. This creates ambiguity on Kalshi regarding non-completion scenarios.Hero tip: Polymarket's explicit edge-case framework (50-50 for cancellations, pre-match forfeits, ties, and 7+ day delays) is clearer for traders. Kalshi traders face uncertainty on forfeit and cancellation outcomes. Align positions with Polymarket's logic if hedging across platforms, and monitor Liquipedia for official results within 2 hours post-event.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Binary win-based resolution only. Resolves to Yes if 100 Thieves wins OR if For Fun Esports wins. No explicit handling of cancellations, forfeits, ties, or delays. Leaves edge cases undefined.
  • Polymarket: Comprehensive edge-case framework. Resolves to team name if that team wins. Resolves to 50-50 if match is canceled, ends in tie, delayed beyond 7 days without winner, or forfeited/walked-over before start. Resolves to winning team if match begins but incomplete due to forfeit/disqualification. Primary source: Liquipedia within 2 hours, or credible consensus if delayed.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market refers to the Rainbow Six Siege match between 100 Thieves and For Fun Esports in the North America League Stage 1 Group Stage, initially scheduled for June 26 at 6:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "100 Thieves" if 100 Thieves win the match against For Fun Esports. This market will resolve to "For Fun Esports" if For Fun Esports win the match against 100 Thieves. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://liquipedia.net/rainbowsix/Main_Page. However, if https://liquipedia.net/rainbowsix/Main_Page has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on the result of the For Fun Esports vs. 100 Thieves Rainbow Six Siege match scheduled for June 26, 2026 at 6:00 PM EDT during the North America League Stage 1 2026 season. Resolution occurs when the match concludes and an official winner is declared by the league or tournament organizers. The market will resolve to Yes if either team wins the match, with separate outcomes tracking each team's victory.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi are driven by peer-to-peer trading rather than bookmaker margins, often resulting in tighter, more efficient odds. Sportsbooks build in juice (typically 4–5% per side), while prediction markets reflect pure trader belief with minimal friction. This market's odds may diverge from traditional esports betting sites because prediction traders operate on longer time horizons and react to different information flows. Comparing this market to major sportsbooks can reveal value opportunities, though prediction markets typically update faster as new information emerges closer to match time.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and regulatory frameworks. Kalshi's binary structure and Polymarket mechanics may appeal to retail traders seeking simplicity, while Kalshi's design draws sophisticated quantitative traders. Order flow timing, funding rates, and platform-specific incentives can cause temporary price gaps. Additionally, each venue settles outcomes independently, so traders may weight match reporting or broadcast confirmation differently. These differences typically narrow as the match concludes and credible results emerge, but tracking the spread between platforms is a useful signal of underlying uncertainty.

Key catalysts include roster changes or player substitutions announced by either team, recent match performance and map pool trends, and any injury or availability updates affecting core players. Betting volume spikes often precede major esports tournaments, signaling informed trader positioning. Community sentiment on social media and esports forums can shift odds if credible analysts publish new tactical breakdowns. Broadcast or official league communications about map selection, patch changes, or format adjustments may also trigger repricing. Monitor team Twitter accounts, esports news outlets, and prediction market activity in the final hours before the match for last-minute shifts in implied probability.