TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$134,145,987

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,441,166,947

406,422

Markets across

30,383

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,688

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Rafael Tobias vs. Lucas Fernando: Round of Victory
kalshi

What is the result of Rafael Tobias vs. Lucas Fernando?

Volume:
$43,146

Lucas Fernando to win in Round 3

 - Kalshi

Lucas Fernando to win in Round 3 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 15, 2026

Closed: Aug 15, 7:43 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Lucas Fernando to win in Round 3

View
100%
83%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5,297
N/A
N/A
$4,302
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Lucas Fernando to win in Round 1

View
0%
26%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$20,736
N/A
N/A
$19,628
Settled
No
kalshi

Lucas Fernando to win in Round 2

View
0%
27%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,838
N/A
N/A
$7,871
Settled
No
kalshi

Rafael Tobias to win in Round 2

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,844
N/A
N/A
$2,681
Settled
No
kalshi

Rafael Tobias to win in Round 1

View
0%
15%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,514
N/A
N/A
$2,264
Settled
No
kalshi

Rafael Tobias to win in Round 3

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,817
N/A
N/A
$1,816
Settled
No
kalshi

Decision / Draw / No Contest

View
0%
28%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,101
N/A
N/A
$953
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Description

This event tracks the outcome of a scheduled mixed martial arts fight between Rafael Tobias and Lucas Fernando. Participants can speculate on whether a specific fighter will win within a particular round or if the fight will end in a decision, draw, or no contest. The resolution depends on the official fight result as declared by the governing league.

Kalshi

If Rafael Tobias wins by KO, TKO, Submission, or Disqualification in Round 1 of the Rafael Tobias vs. Lucas Fernando 330 fight originally scheduled for Aug 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Rafael Tobias wins by KO, TKO, Submission, or Disqualification in Round 2 of the Rafael Tobias vs. Lucas Fernando 330 fight originally scheduled for Aug 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Rafael Tobias wins by KO, TKO, Submission, or Disqualification in Round 3 of the Rafael Tobias vs. Lucas Fernando 330 fight originally scheduled for Aug 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Lucas Fernando wins by KO, TKO, Submission, or Disqualification in Round 1 of the Rafael Tobias vs. Lucas Fernando 330 fight originally scheduled for Aug 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Lucas Fernando wins by KO, TKO, Submission, or Disqualification in Round 2 of the Rafael Tobias vs. Lucas Fernando 330 fight originally scheduled for Aug 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Lucas Fernando wins by KO, TKO, Submission, or Disqualification in Round 3 of the Rafael Tobias vs. Lucas Fernando 330 fight originally scheduled for Aug 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If either competitor wins by decision or the result is Draw/No Contest in the full fight of the Rafael Tobias vs. Lucas Fernando 330 fight originally scheduled for Aug 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the real-time odds and price movements for the Tobias vs. Fernando round market, along with historical trends and $42,547 24-hour volume. It provides a visual representation of how traders on Kalshi are positioning themselves ahead of the event, showing shifts in sentiment as fight night approaches. The interface updates continuously to reflect new trades and market activity specific to this market.

This market resolves around Aug 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The exact round in which the fight ends will be compared against the traded outcomes to determine payouts. No further verification steps beyond public records are required, and the result will align with what is reported by authoritative sports news sources and the official event record.

Key signals that could shift this market include pre-fight media appearances, training updates, or any announced changes to fight strategy. Injuries, weight-miss announcements, or unexpected developments in the days leading up to the event can also cause rapid re-pricing. Additionally, early action or betting trends from large traders on Kalshi may influence odds, as can any shift in the perceived advantage between competitors based on new analytical reports.