TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 4, 8:31 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on the margin of victory in a soccer match between Quorn and Shepshed during regulation time. Each market specifies a different threshold for how many goals the winning team must score beyond their opponent for the outcome to be considered a success.
These markets resolve based on the goal differential between Quorn and Shepshed in their FA Cup match scheduled for September 4, 2026, after 90 minutes of regulation time plus any stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalty kicks. A market resolves to 'Yes' if Quorn wins by more than either 2.5 or 1.5 goals, or if Shepshed wins by more than either 2.5 or 1.5 goals. The outcome hinges solely on the margin of victory during standard playing time, with no consideration given to results beyond regulation time. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Comparing prediction market odds to sportsbook odds can reveal interesting insights into public sentiment versus informed trader perspectives. Sportsbooks typically set lines to balance betting action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market reflects what traders believe will actually happen. Discrepancies can arise from differing levels of expertise, access to information, or simply varying opinions on the teams' strengths and weaknesses. It’s common to see this market move independently of sportsbook lines as new information emerges or as traders adjust their assessments of the game’s likely outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different spreads. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as determined by supply and demand. As more traders believe Shepshed will win by a certain margin, the price of contracts reflecting that outcome will increase. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts as new information becomes available and traders update their predictions, creating a real-time assessment of the likely result.
This market resolves around Sep 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final Regulation Time spread between Quorn and Shepshed is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result declared by the governing sports authority. The specific spread that corresponds to the winning contract will be determined based on the final score difference between the two teams at the end of Regulation Time. Traders holding the winning contract will receive a payout of 100, while those holding losing contracts will receive nothing.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Sep 4, 2026. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Quorn or Shepshed would likely cause significant movement. Changes in team form, such as a surprising win or loss in a recent match, could also shift trader sentiment. Unexpected weather conditions on game day could also play a role, potentially favoring one team over the other. Even public perception and media coverage can influence trading activity, leading to price fluctuations as traders react to new information and narratives.