TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 18, 7:00 AM EST
Polymarket
In the upcoming match between Qingdao Xihaian FC and Chengdu Rongcheng FC, scheduled for July 18, 2026 at 7:00 AM ET: This market will resolve to "Qingdao Xihaian FC" if Qingdao Xihaian FC are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Chengdu Rongcheng FC" if Chengdu Rongcheng FC are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If neither team scores within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve "Neither". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
In the upcoming match between Qingdao Xihaian FC and Chengdu Rongcheng FC, scheduled for July 18, 2026 at 7:00 AM ET: This market will resolve to "Qingdao Xihaian FC" if Qingdao Xihaian FC are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Chengdu Rongcheng FC" if Chengdu Rongcheng FC are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If neither team scores within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve "Neither". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional sportsbook lines because they're set by traders rather than oddsmakers, and they update in real time without the friction of closing lines. Sportsbooks typically adjust odds to balance action and manage risk, while this market reflects pure supply and demand among participants. For first-goal markets, prediction platforms may price in subtler factors like recent form or injury news faster than conventional books, though both venues ultimately converge toward the true probability as the event nears.
On Polymarket, traders set prices through an automated market maker that adjusts odds based on buy and sell volume. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each outcome reflects the collective confidence of the trading community, with shares trading between 0 and 1 (representing 0% to 100% implied probability). As traders accumulate positions ahead of the match, prices shift to reflect new information, injuries, or tactical adjustments, ensuring the market remains responsive to real-world developments.
This market resolves around Jul 18, 2026, once the match concludes and the first goal is verified. The outcome is confirmed against credible public sources reporting the match result and goal scorer. Traders holding shares in the correct first-goal scorer receive their payout, while incorrect positions expire worthless. Resolution typically occurs within hours of final whistle, depending on official confirmation and platform processing.
Key catalysts include team news such as injuries to star forwards, lineup announcements, or tactical changes that affect attacking setup. Weather conditions, pitch quality, and referee assignments can influence early-game dynamics. Recent form, head-to-head history, and any last-minute roster updates will shift trader positioning. As kickoff approaches, late money and sharp action often signal informed confidence in particular outcomes, causing sharp repricing in the final hours before the match begins.