TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 28, 11:29 PM EST
Kalshi
This market determines which quarterback will achieve the highest fantasy points in a specific week of the NFL season using a full-point-per-reception scoring system. The scoring includes points from passing, rushing, receiving, and special teams performance, with specific values assigned to various statistical categories.
Each market resolves to 'Yes' only if the specified quarterback finishes highest in total full-PPR fantasy points for all quarterbacks in Week 3 of the 2026 NFL regular season, as calculated by Sleeper's scoring system including overtime. All eligible quarterbacks are ranked regardless of whether they have a listed market, with non-participating players scoring zero points. If multiple players tie for the highest points, the market resolves to a fractional value of 1 divided by the number of tied players, and no holder will receive $1 minus the 'Yes' payout. The scoring system awards points for passing yards (0.04 per yard, plus 1 per 25 yards), passing touchdowns (4 points), interceptions thrown (-1), passing two-point conversions (2), rushing yards (0.1 per yard, plus 1 per 10 yards), rushing touchdowns (6), rushing two-point conversions (2), receptions (1), receiving yards (0.1 per yard, plus 1 per 10 yards), receiving touchdowns (6), receiving two-point conversions (2), field goals (3 for 0-39 yards, 4 for 40-49, 5 for 50-59, 6 for 60+), extra points (1), missed field goals (-1), missed extra points (-1), defensive touchdowns (6), sacks (1), interceptions (2), defensive fumble recoveries (2), forced fumbles (1), safeties (2), blocked kicks (2), special teams touchdowns (6), special teams forced fumbles (1), special teams fumble recoveries (1), defensive points allowed (10 for 0 allowed, 7 for 1-6, 4 for 7-13, 1 for 14-20, 0 for 21-27, -1 for 28-34, -4 for 35+), special teams touchdowns (6), fumbles (0), lost fumbles (-2), and fumble recovery touchdowns (6).
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market represents the aggregated beliefs of individual traders. If a quarterback is heavily favored by the public, their price on Kalshi may be higher (implying a lower probability) than their odds at a sportsbook. Conversely, quarterbacks the market perceives as undervalued might have more favorable prices here than at sportsbooks. It’s a useful comparison for informed betting.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing each quarterback, and the price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand. As more people buy contracts for a particular quarterback, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability of that outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price reflects the collective assessment of all participants, making it a dynamic and real-time representation of expectations for the NFL Week 3 QB market. The current top outcome is unavailable, but you can see the probabilities reflected in the current prices.
This market resolves around Sep 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The quarterback who scores the most fantasy points in Week 3 of the NFL season, according to standard fantasy scoring rules, will be considered the winner of this market. The resolution will be based on official NFL statistics and widely accepted fantasy football scoring platforms. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of the winning quarterback for this market.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Injury news regarding key quarterbacks is a major catalyst; if a starting quarterback is ruled out, the odds for their backup and other quarterbacks will likely shift. Unexpected changes in team strategy or offensive play-calling could also influence expectations. Furthermore, late-breaking news about player matchups or weather conditions could lead to adjustments in the market. Any significant development affecting a quarterback’s projected performance has the potential to move this market before it resolves.