TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$107,351,958

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,416,970,024

400,720

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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QB Fantasy Football Week 1 Leader?
kalshi

QB Fantasy Football Week 1 Leader?

Volume:
$2,248

Caleb Williams

 - Kalshi

Caleb Williams - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 15, 2026

Closed: Sep 14, 11:59 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Caleb Williams

View
100%
4%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$981
N/A
N/A
$795
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Lamar Jackson

View
0%
16%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$675
N/A
N/A
$425
Settled
No
kalshi

Brock Purdy

View
0%
84%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$258
N/A
N/A
$258
Settled
No
kalshi

Josh Allen

View
0%
48%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$139
N/A
N/A
$129
Settled
No
kalshi

Patrick Mahomes

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$78
N/A
N/A
$78
Settled
No
kalshi

Joe Burrow

View
0%
10%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$42
N/A
N/A
$42
Settled
No
kalshi

Jaxson Dart

View
0%
11%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$26
N/A
N/A
$26
Settled
No
kalshi

Daniel Jones

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$20
N/A
N/A
$20
Settled
No
kalshi

Kyler Murray

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$16
N/A
N/A
$16
Settled
No
kalshi

Dak Prescott

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$13
N/A
N/A
$13
Settled
No
kalshi

Jalen Hurts

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Baker Mayfield

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Jared Goff

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Matthew Stafford

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Trevor Lawrence

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Justin Herbert

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Bryce Young

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Cam Ward

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Tyler Shough

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Bo Nix

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Geno Smith

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Jayden Daniels

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Kirk Cousins

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Jordan Love

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Malik Willis

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 31

Description

This market determines which quarterback will achieve the highest fantasy points in the first week of the 2026 NFL regular season using Sleeper's full-PPR scoring system. The scoring includes points from passing, rushing, receiving, kicking, and defensive performances, with specific values assigned to various statistical categories.

Kalshi

Each market resolves to "Yes" if the specified quarterback finishes highest in total full-PPR fantasy points for all quarterbacks in Week 1 of the 2026 NFL regular season, using Sleeper's scoring system including overtime. All eligible quarterbacks are ranked, even those without a listed market. Players who do not participate that week are considered to have scored zero points. If multiple players tie for the highest points, the market resolves to 1/N where N is the number of tied players, and no holder receives $1 minus the Yes payout. The scoring system awards points for passing yards (0.04 per yard), passing touchdowns (4 points), interceptions (-1), rushing yards (0.1 per yard), rushing touchdowns (6 points), receptions (1 point), receiving yards (0.1 per yard), receiving touchdowns (6 points), field goals (3-6 points depending on distance), extra points (1 point), defensive touchdowns (6 points), sacks (1 point), interceptions (2 points), fumble recoveries (2 points), forced fumbles (1 point), safeties (2 points), blocked kicks (2 points), special teams touchdowns (6 points), and points allowed by the defense (ranging from 10 points for 0 allowed to -4 for 35+ allowed). Special teams fumble recoveries and forced fumbles also contribute points, while fumbles lost result in a -2 point deduction.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the NFL Week 1 QB market tracks the current odds for each quarterback to lead in fantasy points during Week 1 of the NFL season. You can view the price of each outcome, historical price movements, and the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $627. The total volume traded in this market is $2,248. This allows traders to assess market sentiment and potential opportunities as they develop their predictions for the top-performing quarterback.

Generally, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a broader range of information than traditional sportsbook odds, which are often set by a smaller group of experts. While there can be alignment, this market may differ from sportsbook lines due to the diverse perspectives of traders on Kalshi. Sportsbooks often factor in a 'vig' or commission, whereas prediction markets allow for more direct probability assessment. It's common to see prediction markets move faster to incorporate new information and adjust probabilities accordingly.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief in a particular quarterback’s likelihood of leading in fantasy points. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, with higher prices indicating greater perceived probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and trading activity provide insights into how strongly different outcomes are supported by traders. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for real-time adjustments based on new information and evolving sentiment.

This market resolves around Sep 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The quarterback with the highest fantasy point total in Week 1 of the NFL season, as calculated by standard fantasy football scoring rules, will be considered the winning outcome. Resolution will be based on official NFL game statistics and widely accepted fantasy football scoring platforms. Traders should monitor official sources for confirmation of the final results and market settlement.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. News regarding quarterback injuries, changes in team lineups, or updated weather forecasts for Week 1 games could all cause shifts in trader sentiment. Pre-game reports on player health and potential matchups will also be closely watched. Unexpected news about a quarterback’s performance in practice or a change in offensive strategy could also move the market. Any information that alters the perceived likelihood of a quarterback’s success will likely be reflected in the trading activity on Kalshi.