TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 23, 2:01 PM EST
Kalshi
This event group covers the exact final score of the UEFA Europa League match between Qarabağ Ağdam FK and PFK CSKA Sofia scheduled for July 23, 2026. Both Kalshi and Polymarket offer granular exact-score markets, with Kalshi listing 30 specific outcomes that resolve to Yes, and Polymarket offering individual binary markets for each exact score plus an 'Any Other Score' catch-all.
In the upcoming UEFA Europa League game between Qarabağ Ağdam FK and PFK CSKA Sofia, scheduled for July 23, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the Qarabağ Ağdam FK vs. PFK CSKA Sofia match originally scheduled for July 23, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, considering only the result at the end of 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. If the actual score is not one of the explicitly listed outcomes, the market resolves to "Any Other Score." If the match is postponed, the market will remain open until it is completed; if it is canceled with no make-up game, the market resolves to "0-0." The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Resolution is determined by the final score of the Qarabag FK vs PFC CSKA Sofia professional Europa League soccer game originally scheduled for July 23, 2026, measured after 90 minutes plus stoppage time and excluding extra time or penalties. Each possible regulation-time correct score outcome—ranging from 0-0 draws to high-scoring results—resolves to Yes when that exact final score is achieved. The market encompasses all feasible scorelines including draws (0-0, 1-1, 2-2, 3-3), victories for either team across various goal differentials, and scores up to 5 goals for the winning team.
Prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks price events differently because they operate under distinct incentive structures. Sportsbooks set odds to balance their book and lock in profit margins, while prediction markets rely on real-time supply and demand from independent traders. Exact-score markets, in particular, fragment probability across many possible outcomes, making direct one-to-one comparisons challenging. Prediction market odds often reflect longer-term consensus and can diverge sharply from sportsbook lines during periods of low volume or when new information emerges. Comparing both sources helps traders identify mispricings and refine their own forecasts.
Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and regulatory environments, all of which influence how odds are set. Polymarket and Kalshi may have different fee structures, user interfaces, or promotional incentives that shift participation patterns. Volume concentration on one venue can amplify price movements, while lower activity on another allows odds to lag behind new information. Additionally, each platform's rules and dispute-resolution processes may create subtle differences in how traders perceive and price tail-risk outcomes. Monitoring both sites reveals arbitrage opportunities and signals where consensus is strongest.
Team news—injuries, suspensions, or lineup changes—can significantly shift odds on specific scorelines favored by one side's attacking or defensive profile. Recent form, head-to-head records, and venue conditions all influence trader sentiment. Major betting syndicates or sharp money entering the market can trigger rapid repricing across multiple outcomes. Media coverage, expert predictions, and social-media momentum may also sway retail participation. As the match date approaches, late-breaking roster updates or weather forecasts can create volatility, particularly in outcomes perceived as sensitive to team composition or playing conditions.