TOTAL VOLUME:

$143b

24H VOL:

$111,424,783

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,661,467,257

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,630,632,565

494,234

Markets across

37,330

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,871

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Pro Football: Raiders 2026 Win Total
polymarket
kalshi

Will the Raiders exceed their 2026 win total?

Total volume:
$564,713
Volume 24h:
$6,703
82%
Liquidity:
$5,904
48%
Open interest:
$364,064
1%

4+ wins

 - Kalshi

4+ wins - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Feb 16, 2027

Will the Las Vegas pro football team win at least 4 games this season?

98%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 98¢ buys you 102 shares | Odds: 98% Total Payout: $102 | Net Profit: $2 Multiplier: 1.02x | ROI: 2% | APY: 8% Illiquid market 93 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

4+ wins

Trade
98%
Yes 100¢No 7¢
7¢
N/A
$18,628
0%
0.25%
$13,575
3mo 3d
active
polymarket

3.5+ Wins

Trade
98%
Yes 99.5¢No 3.9¢
3.4¢
$802
$147
0%
0%
N/A
4mo 2d
active
polymarket

4.5+ Wins

Trade
95%
2%
Yes 99.2¢No 9.5¢
8.7¢
$377
$194
0%
0%
N/A
4mo 2d
active
kalshi

5+ wins

Trade
88%
9%
Yes 96¢No 10¢
6¢
N/A
$11,326
1%
2%
$8,050
3mo 3d
active
polymarket

5.5+ Wins

Trade
88%
1%
Yes 91¢No 15¢
6¢
$262
$76
27%
27%
N/A
4mo 2d
active
kalshi

6+ wins

Trade
87%
Yes 86¢No 18¢
4¢
N/A
$43,381
0.96%
4%
$22,171
3mo 3d
active
polymarket

6.5+ Wins

Trade
78%
1%
Yes 81¢No 26¢
7¢
$1,856
$208
0%
249%
N/A
4mo 2d
active
kalshi

7+ wins

Trade
74%
3%
Yes 74¢No 29¢
3¢
N/A
$57,432
0.17%
3%
$28,800
3mo 3d
active
polymarket

7.5+ Wins

Trade
62%
Yes 64¢No 40¢
4¢
$2,607
$1,052
0.04%
11%
N/A
4mo 2d
active
kalshi

8+ wins

Trade
61%
2%
Yes 61¢No 41¢
2¢
N/A
$81,839
0.17%
19%
$19,448
3mo 3d
active
kalshi

9+ wins

Trade
40%
Yes 40¢No 63¢
3¢
N/A
$207,730
0.43%
320%
$181,283
3mo 3d
active
kalshi

10+ wins

Trade
19%
Yes 24¢No 80¢
4¢
N/A
$44,954
0.1%
9%
$20,525
3mo 3d
active
kalshi

11+ wins

Trade
14%
6%
Yes 14¢No 91¢
5¢
N/A
$35,570
0.2%
58%
$16,334
3mo 3d
active
kalshi

12+ wins

Trade
13%
Yes 11¢No 94¢
5¢
N/A
$13,372
0%
6%
$9,650
3mo 3d
active
kalshi

14+ wins

Trade
6%
Yes 5¢No 100¢
5¢
N/A
$7,589
0%
0%
$6,438
3mo 3d
active
kalshi

13+ wins

Trade
4%
Yes 8¢No 99¢
7¢
N/A
$9,886
0%
0.52%
$7,798
3mo 3d
active
kalshi

15+ wins

Trade
2%
Yes 5¢No 100¢
5¢
N/A
$12,171
0%
0%
$11,236
3mo 3d
active
kalshi

3+ wins

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$6,732
N/A
N/A
$6,401
3mo 3d
Yes
kalshi

2+ wins

View
100%
9%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$845
N/A
N/A
$793
3mo 3d
Yes
kalshi

16+ wins

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,066
N/A
N/A
$7,047
3mo 3d
No
kalshi

17 wins

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,516
N/A
N/A
$4,514
3mo 3d
No
kalshi

1+ wins

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 3d
Yes
Total markets: 22

Intro

This market tracks the likelihood of the Las Vegas Raiders winning at least 4 games during the 2026 NFL regular season. Currently, the aggregated probability across Polymarket and Kalshi indicates a 98.0% chance of this outcome. Resolution depends on the official NFL regular season record, specifically if the team wins at least 5 games, as defined by the resolution source. This prediction market will resolve following the conclusion of the 2026-27 regular season, with a resolution date estimate of February 16, 2027, so keep a close watch on the Raiders’ performance throughout the season and their playoff contention as that date approaches.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket asks about exceeding a threshold (e.g., >3.5), while Kalshi asks about reaching a threshold (e.g., >=1).Hero tip: Pay close attention to the 'greater than' vs. 'at least' phrasing when comparing markets across platforms. This difference significantly impacts the number of wins required for resolution.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Markets resolve 'Yes' if the Raiders have *more than* a specified number of wins. For example, a market for >4.5 wins requires at least 5 wins. Source: https://www.nfl.com
  • Kalshi: Markets resolve 'Yes' if the Raiders have *at least* a specified number of wins. For example, a market for >=4 wins requires exactly 4 or more wins. Source: Kalshi platform rules.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team's regular season win total exceeds the listed number. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Only official regular-season games count. Playoff games, including Wild Card, Divisional, Conference Championship, and Pro Football Championship games, do not count. Only played games resulting in a win will count toward this total. If the listed team plays fewer games than scheduled due to cancellation, weather, forfeit, or any other reason, only actual wins recorded count toward the total; canceled or unplayed games do not count as wins. If the 2026 NFL regular season is cancelled, postponed after February 15, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or it cannot be determined how many wins the listed team recorded within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official NFL records (https://www.nfl.com); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the total number of regular season wins accumulated by the Las Vegas Pro Football team during the 2026-27 season. Each market corresponds to a specific win threshold: the team must achieve at least that threshold to resolve to Yes. For example, the 5+ wins market resolves Yes if Las Vegas wins five or more games; the 12+ wins market resolves Yes if Las Vegas wins twelve or more games. The resolution is based on the official final regular season win total recorded by the league at the conclusion of the 2026-27 regular season. All thresholds range from a minimum of one win through a maximum of seventeen wins.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the consensus view on the Raiders 2026 win total. Currently, the combined volume across both platforms is $564,713, with $1,797 traded in the last 24 hours. This indicates significant interest in forecasting the team’s performance. Polymarket currently favors Will the Las Vegas Raiders have more than 3.5 wins during the 2026 NFL season? at 97.8%, while Kalshi leans toward Will the Las Vegas pro football team win at least 4 games this season? at 98.0%. The dashboard aggregates this data to provide a comprehensive overview of expectations for the Raiders' success.

Prediction market odds, like those found on Polymarket and Kalshi, often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of forecasters, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and ensure profit, while this market is driven by individuals predicting the most likely outcome. The difference between the two can sometimes be significant, especially when public sentiment strongly deviates from expert analysis. It’s common to see prediction markets react more quickly to new information, as traders continuously update their forecasts based on evolving news and data.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi for the Raiders 2026 win total can diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has a different user base with varying levels of expertise and access to information, leading to differing opinions. Trading volume also plays a role; higher volume on one platform can indicate stronger conviction and potentially influence the price. Additionally, the specific market structures and fee schedules on each platform can create minor price discrepancies. These differences are normal and reflect the dynamic nature of prediction markets.

This market resolves around Feb 16, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final win total for the Las Vegas Raiders in the 2026 NFL season, as officially recorded by the NFL, will determine the outcome. The resolution will be based on the team’s regular season record, including any wins achieved through overtime. No further information regarding the resolution process is available at this time.

Numerous factors could influence the price of this market. Major player acquisitions or injuries to key personnel would likely have a significant impact. Coaching changes, performance in the upcoming NFL draft, and even preseason game results could all shift expectations. Broader NFL news, such as rule changes or shifts in the competitive landscape of the league, could also move the market. Unexpected developments impacting the Raiders’ division rivals could also influence traders’ assessments of the Raiders 2026 win total.