TOTAL VOLUME:

$143b

24H VOL:

$111,424,783

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,661,467,257

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,630,632,565

494,234

Markets across

37,330

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,871

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Pro Football: Patriots 2026 Win Total
polymarket
kalshi

Will the Patriots exceed their 2026 win total?

Total volume:
$575,091
Volume 24h:
$40,771N/A
Liquidity:
$11,649
18%
Open interest:
$394,869
0.26%

4+ wins

 - Kalshi

4+ wins - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Feb 16, 2027

Will the New England pro football team win at least 4 games this season?

98%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 98¢ buys you 102 shares | Odds: 98% Total Payout: $102 | Net Profit: $2 Multiplier: 1.02x | ROI: 2% | APY: 8% Illiquid market 93 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

4+ wins

Trade
98%
Yes 100¢No 5¢
5¢
N/A
$2,644
0%
0%
$2,583
3mo 3d
active
kalshi

6+ wins

Trade
97%
Yes 99¢No 6¢
5¢
N/A
$21,803
0%
8%
$15,403
3mo 3d
active
kalshi

7+ wins

Trade
97%
Yes 96¢No 9¢
5¢
N/A
$10,523
0%
103%
$6,417
3mo 3d
active
kalshi

5+ wins

Trade
94%
Yes 100¢No 5¢
5¢
N/A
$5,186
0%
0%
$4,853
3mo 3d
active
kalshi

8+ wins

Trade
91%
Yes 93¢No 11¢
4¢
N/A
$34,145
0%
5%
$7,727
3mo 3d
active
polymarket

7.5+ Wins

Trade
87%
2%
Yes 90¢No 16¢
6¢
$504
$824
0%
8%
N/A
4mo 2d
active
kalshi

9+ wins

Trade
83%
Yes 83¢No 22¢
5¢
N/A
$230,907
0%
2%
$215,437
3mo 3d
active
polymarket

8.5+ Wins

Trade
82%
Yes 82¢No 19¢
1¢
$854
$445
0%
424%
N/A
4mo 2d
active
kalshi

10+ wins

Trade
66%
2%
Yes 66¢No 37¢
3¢
N/A
$108,911
0.12%
5%
$58,940
3mo 3d
active
polymarket

9.5+ Wins

Trade
61%
Yes 61¢No 40¢
1¢
$4,298
$933
0%
70%
N/A
4mo 2d
active
kalshi

11+ wins

Trade
48%
1%
Yes 50¢No 53¢
3¢
N/A
$75,138
1%
7%
$41,305
3mo 3d
active
polymarket

10.5+ Wins

Trade
44%
Yes 45¢No 58¢
3¢
$4,960
$900
9%
36%
N/A
4mo 2d
active
kalshi

12+ wins

Trade
36%
Yes 36¢No 69¢
5¢
N/A
$41,920
0.01%
12%
$14,619
3mo 3d
active
polymarket

11.5+ Wins

Trade
31%
Yes 32¢No 70¢
2¢
$1,032
$366
8%
107%
N/A
4mo 2d
active
kalshi

13+ wins

Trade
13%
Yes 18¢No 86¢
4¢
N/A
$16,646
0%
7%
$11,611
3mo 3d
active
kalshi

14+ wins

Trade
4%
Yes 12¢No 96¢
8¢
N/A
$16,059
0%
17%
$8,470
3mo 3d
active
kalshi

15+ wins

Trade
2%
Yes 4¢No 100¢
4¢
N/A
$3,345
0%
19%
$3,147
3mo 3d
active
kalshi

2+ wins

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,559
N/A
N/A
$1,559
3mo 3d
Yes
kalshi

1+ wins

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$460
N/A
N/A
$460
3mo 3d
Yes
kalshi

3+ wins

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$232
N/A
N/A
$232
3mo 3d
Yes
kalshi

17 wins

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,274
N/A
N/A
$1,268
3mo 3d
No
kalshi

16+ wins

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$872
N/A
N/A
$838
3mo 3d
No
Total markets: 22

Intro

This market tracks expectations for the New England Patriots’ performance in the 2026 NFL regular season, specifically whether the team will win at least 4 games. Currently, the aggregated probability across Polymarket and Kalshi indicates a 98.0% chance of the Patriots achieving this win total, as defined by a regular season record of at least 4 wins. This market’s resolution source is based on the New England Pro Football team’s performance in the 2026-27 regular season. Keep an eye on the Patriots’ performance throughout the 2026 season, with final resolution expected around February 16, 2027, at the conclusion of the regular season.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket asks if the Patriots will *exceed* a win total, while Kalshi asks if they will win *at least* a certain number of games.Hero tip: Consider the difference between 'greater than' and 'greater than or equal to' when comparing markets. A 7.5 win total on Polymarket requires 8 wins, while a 'at least 7' on Kalshi requires 7.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Markets resolve 'Yes' if the Patriots' win total *exceeds* a specified number (e.g., >7.5). "This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team's regular season win total exceeds the listed number."
  • Kalshi: Markets resolve 'Yes' if the Patriots win *at least* a specified number of games (1-17). "If the New England Pro Football team wins at least 1 games in the 2026-27 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team's regular season win total exceeds the listed number. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Only official regular-season games count. Playoff games, including Wild Card, Divisional, Conference Championship, and Pro Football Championship games, do not count. Only played games resulting in a win will count toward this total. If the listed team plays fewer games than scheduled due to cancellation, weather, forfeit, or any other reason, only actual wins recorded count toward the total; canceled or unplayed games do not count as wins. If the 2026 NFL regular season is cancelled, postponed after February 15, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or it cannot be determined how many wins the listed team recorded within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official NFL records (https://www.nfl.com); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the total number of regular season wins accumulated by the New England Pro Football team during the 2026-27 season. Each market corresponds to a specific win threshold: the team must achieve at least that threshold to resolve to Yes. For example, the 5+ wins market resolves Yes if New England wins five or more games; the 12+ wins market resolves Yes if New England wins twelve or more games. The resolution is based on the official final regular season win total recorded by the league at the conclusion of the 2026-27 regular season. All thresholds range from a minimum of one win through a maximum of seventeen wins.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the consensus view on the Patriots 2026 win total market, aggregating trading activity from both platforms. Currently, the combined volume across these venues is $575,091, with $1,223 traded in the last 24 hours. Polymarket currently favors Will the New England Patriots have more than 7.5 wins during the 2026 NFL season? at 87.0%, while Kalshi leans toward Will the New England pro football team win at least 4 games this season? at 98.0%. This allows traders to see a comprehensive picture of where the crowd believes the Patriots will land in terms of wins during the 2026 NFL season.

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while prediction markets allow anyone to express their belief about the outcome. This can lead to discrepancies, especially when public sentiment strongly diverges from the sportsbook's initial assessment. The volume of $575,091 in this market suggests significant interest and potentially a refined estimate compared to initial sportsbook offerings.

Prices for this market can vary between Polymarket and Kalshi due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has its own user base, trading fees, and liquidity, which can all influence price discovery. Differences in the types of traders participating on each platform – some may be more statistically driven, others more sentiment-based – also contribute to price divergence. Furthermore, differing market-making activity and the timing of trades can create temporary imbalances between the two venues, even though they ultimately track the same underlying event.

This market resolves around Feb 16, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the Patriots’ official 2026 regular season win total is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result will be based on the official NFL standings and records for the 2026 season. The number of wins achieved by the New England Patriots will determine whether the market settles in favor of over or under a specific win threshold, as defined by the leading outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi.

Several events could significantly impact this market before it resolves. Major player acquisitions or departures, coaching changes, and even significant injuries to key players will all be closely watched by traders. Pre-season performance and early-season results will also provide valuable information and likely cause price adjustments. News regarding the Patriots’ draft strategy and off-season training could also influence sentiment. Any developments that alter perceptions of the team's potential for success will likely lead to increased volume and price movement in this market.