TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$107,351,958

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,416,970,024

400,720

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Pro Football: 2026-27 Week 1 Passing Touchdowns Leader
polymarket
kalshi

Who will lead in passing touchdowns?

Volume:
$583,108

Josh Allen: 3+

 - Kalshi

Josh Allen: 3+ - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 15, 2026

Closed: Sep 17, 9:30 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Josh Allen: 3+

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$89,055
N/A
N/A
$71,964
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Josh Allen: 2+

View
100%
39%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$79,104
N/A
N/A
$70,085
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Jared Goff: 2+

View
100%
46%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$72,007
N/A
N/A
$63,178
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Jared Goff: 1+

View
100%
14%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$45,260
N/A
N/A
$43,163
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Jared Goff: 4+

View
100%
94%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$37,267
N/A
N/A
$27,292
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Jared Goff: 3+

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$30,232
N/A
N/A
$23,155
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Josh Allen: 1+

View
100%
14%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$10,423
N/A
N/A
$9,784
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Trevor Lawrence

View
100%
17%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$303
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Josh Allen: 4+

View
0%
12%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$146,353
N/A
N/A
$116,796
Settled
No
kalshi

Josh Allen: 5+

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$50,113
N/A
N/A
$48,612
Settled
No
kalshi

Jared Goff: 5+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$17,028
N/A
N/A
$13,745
Settled
No
polymarket

Brock Purdy

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$305
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Jaxson Dart

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$271
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Jalen Hurts

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$191
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Patrick Mahomes

View
0%
8%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$169
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Trey Lance

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$148
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Justin Herbert

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$134
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Bo Nix

View
0%
8%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$129
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Caleb Williams

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$118
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Tua Tagovailoa

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$113
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Dak Prescott

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$98
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Josh Allen

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$93
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Kyle Allen

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$93
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Malik Willis

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$93
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Kyle McCord

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$93
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 90

Description

This prediction market asks which NFL player will throw the most passing touchdowns in Week 1 of the 2026-27 NFL regular season. In the event of a tie, subsequent tiebreakers based on passing yards and completion percentage will be used to determine the winner.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket considers all Week 1 games, while Kalshi markets focus exclusively on the Detroit vs. Buffalo game.Hero tip: Do not treat these markets as interchangeable. Kalshi markets are game-specific, while Polymarket is league-wide. Consider the probability of a player performing well in a single game versus leading the entire league in touchdowns.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves based on the player with the most passing touchdowns in all Week 1 NFL games. Key Quote: "This market will resolve in favor of the player that finishes Week 1 of the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most passing touchdowns."
  • Kalshi: Resolves based on the number of passing touchdowns scored by Josh Allen or Jared Goff in the Detroit vs. Buffalo game. Key Quote: "If Josh Allen records 1+ passing touchdowns in the Detroit vs Buffalo Pro Football game originally scheduled for Sep 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve in favor of the player that finishes Week 1 of the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most passing touchdowns. Only games designated by the NFL as Week 1 of the 2026-27 regular season count. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the tied player with more passing yards in Week 1 of the 2026-27 NFL regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player with a higher completion percentage in Week 1 of the 2026-27 NFL regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to "Other". If Week 1 of the 2026-27 NFL regular season is shortened or truncated for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available NFL statistics for completed games. If Week 1 of the 2026-27 NFL regular season is cancelled, postponed past September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it is unclear which player led the NFL in passing touchdowns within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

These markets resolve based on the number of passing touchdowns recorded by either Josh Allen or Jared Goff in the Detroit vs Buffalo Pro Football game scheduled for September 17, 2026. For any market to resolve as 'Yes,' the specified quarterback must meet or exceed the stated threshold of passing touchdowns (ranging from 1 to 5). If a quarterback is active for the game but does not take a single snap, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game begins. However, once a quarterback takes at least one snap—even if that snap is nullified by a penalty—the market resolution depends solely on the actual passing touchdowns they record during the game. All markets are independent, each corresponding to a different touchdown threshold for each quarterback, and all operate under the same snap participation and settlement conditions.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds, like those found on Polymarket and Kalshi, often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while prediction markets allow anyone to trade and express their beliefs about the outcome of this market. This can lead to discrepancies, as prediction markets may incorporate information and insights not fully captured by sportsbook algorithms. However, both provide valuable data points for informed decision-making.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Each platform has a different user base, trading volume, and market structure. Polymarket may attract more sophisticated traders, while Kalshi might have a broader range of participants. Additionally, the specific market types offered on each platform—for example, binary outcomes versus continuous ranges—can influence price discovery. These differences in liquidity and participant behavior can lead to varying probabilities for the same event, the 2026-27 NFL passing touchdowns race.

Numerous factors could influence this market before it resolves. Significant player injuries to key quarterbacks, changes in team offensive strategies, or unexpected coaching decisions could all shift probabilities. Preseason performance and news regarding player trades or free agent signings will also be closely watched. Even seemingly minor events, such as weather forecasts for Week 1 games, could impact expected passing yardage and touchdown totals. Monitoring these signals and assessing their potential impact will be crucial for traders looking to capitalize on market movements.