TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$134,145,987

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,441,166,947

406,422

Markets across

30,383

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,688

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Pro Baseball WAR (Wins Above Replacement) Leader
kalshi

Pro Baseball WAR (Wins Above Replacement) Leader

Volume:
$77,388

Pete Crow-Armstrong

 - Kalshi

Pete Crow-Armstrong - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 28, 2026

Closed: Sep 27, 9:03 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Pete Crow-Armstrong

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$22,158
N/A
N/A
$15,772
2w 1d 14h
Yes
kalshi

Bobby Witt Jr.

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,487
N/A
N/A
$3,685
2w 1d 14h
No
kalshi

Shohei Ohtani

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,466
N/A
N/A
$2,932
2w 1d 14h
No
kalshi

Zack Wheeler

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,357
N/A
N/A
$6,057
2w 1d 14h
No
kalshi

Aaron Judge

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,049
N/A
N/A
$5,331
2w 1d 14h
No
kalshi

Kevin McGonigle

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,136
N/A
N/A
$4,136
2w 1d 14h
No
kalshi

Cristopher Sanchez

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,862
N/A
N/A
$1,732
2w 1d 14h
No
kalshi

Nico Hoerner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,787
N/A
N/A
$1,293
2w 1d 14h
No
kalshi

Matt Olson

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,759
N/A
N/A
$1,307
2w 1d 14h
No
kalshi

Ceddanne Rafaela

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,228
N/A
N/A
$1,228
2w 1d 14h
No
kalshi

Paul Skenes

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,030
N/A
N/A
$730
2w 1d 14h
No
kalshi

Nick Pivetta

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$969
N/A
N/A
$969
2w 1d 14h
No
kalshi

Nick Kurtz

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$782
N/A
N/A
$501
2w 1d 14h
No
kalshi

Cal Raleigh

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$653
N/A
N/A
$653
2w 1d 14h
No
kalshi

Tarik Skubal

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$548
N/A
N/A
$548
2w 1d 14h
No
kalshi

Zach Neto

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$501
N/A
N/A
$501
2w 1d 14h
No
kalshi

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$501
N/A
N/A
$501
2w 1d 14h
No
kalshi

Wyatt Langford

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$501
N/A
N/A
$501
2w 1d 14h
No
kalshi

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$501
N/A
N/A
$501
2w 1d 14h
No
kalshi

Trea Turner

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$501
N/A
N/A
$501
2w 1d 14h
No
kalshi

Trevor Rogers

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$501
N/A
N/A
$501
2w 1d 14h
No
kalshi

Ranger Suarez

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$501
N/A
N/A
$501
2w 1d 14h
No
kalshi

Roman Anthony

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$501
N/A
N/A
$501
2w 1d 14h
No
kalshi

Nick Lodolo

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$501
N/A
N/A
$501
2w 1d 14h
No
kalshi

Maikel Garcia

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$501
N/A
N/A
$501
2w 1d 14h
No
Total markets: 25 of 58

Description

A professional baseball player leads the major leagues in Wins Above Replacement during the 2026 regular season.

Kalshi

Wins Above Replacement (WAR) is calculated using Baseball-Reference's official b-WAR methodology. The participant with the highest total WAR across the 2026 regular season, as documented by official league statistics, resolves to Yes. Only statistics from games officially designated as part of the regular season are included; preseason, postseason, playoff, exhibition, and all-star games are excluded. If a participant competes for multiple teams during the season, statistics from all teams are combined. Participants who do not play any games due to injury, suspension, retirement, or other reasons resolve to No. League minimum qualification thresholds apply. In case of exact ties where the league does not declare a single winner, tied participants receive a proportional payout. Statistical corrections are only considered if made before the expiration date.

Frequently asked questions

Generally, prediction markets like this one tend to be more accurate than traditional sportsbook odds, especially when predicting the outcome of events far in advance. This is because prediction markets aggregate the wisdom of the crowd, allowing prices to reflect a broader range of information and perspectives. While sportsbooks may initially set odds based on statistical models and expert opinions, this market continuously updates based on real-time trading activity. However, it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities and can be influenced by various factors, including public sentiment and news events.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different players to lead in WAR, and the price of each contract reflects the market's collective belief about that player's probability of winning. As more people buy a contract, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's depth and volume indicate the level of confidence traders have in each outcome, and the 24-hour volume of $0 shows current interest in the market.

This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the player with the highest calculated Wins Above Replacement (WAR) statistic at the end of the 2026 regular season, as determined by a reputable baseball statistics website, will be declared the winner. The final WAR totals will be used to determine the outcome of this market, and any disputes will be resolved based on publicly available data.

Numerous factors could influence trading activity in this market. Player injuries are a significant catalyst, as the absence of a key player can dramatically shift probabilities. Strong or poor performance during the 2025 and 2026 seasons will also be closely watched, impacting traders' assessments of each player's chances. Major trades could also reshape team dynamics and affect a player’s opportunity to accumulate WAR. Finally, any news regarding rule changes or shifts in team strategy could also move this market, as these factors can influence player statistics.