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Pro Baseball: 60+ Home Run Season
⌛Ending Soon
kalshi

Pro Baseball: 60+ Home Run Season

Volume:
$16,658

Kyle Schwarber

 - Kalshi

Kyle Schwarber - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 28, 2026

Closed: Sep 27, 8:43 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Kyle Schwarber

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,604
N/A
N/A
$4,495
1d 18h 49m
No
kalshi

Aaron Judge

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,165
N/A
N/A
$2,364
1d 18h 49m
No
kalshi

Yordan Alvarez

View
0%
8%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,803
N/A
N/A
$1,646
1d 18h 49m
No
kalshi

Junior Caminero

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,156
N/A
N/A
$1,148
1d 18h 49m
No
kalshi

Cal Raleigh

View
0%
9%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$427
N/A
N/A
$427
1d 18h 49m
No
kalshi

Shohei Ohtani

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$323
N/A
N/A
$179
1d 18h 49m
No
kalshi

Eugenio Suárez

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$148
N/A
N/A
$148
1d 18h 49m
No
kalshi

Juan Soto

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$23
N/A
N/A
$23
1d 18h 49m
No
kalshi

Nick Kurtz

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
1d 18h 49m
No
kalshi

Pete Alonso

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
1d 18h 49m
No
Total markets: 10

Intro

This market tracks whether a player will hit 60 or more home runs during the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season. On Kalshi, the probability that Aaron Judge records 60+ home runs stands at 18.0%, while Kyle Schwarber reaching that milestone is priced at 16.0%. Resolution will be determined by official regular season statistics as recorded through the end of the 2026 season on October 1, 2026. Watch each player's home run pace and performance trajectory as the regular season progresses toward the October 1 resolution date.

Kalshi

If Cal Raleigh records 60+ home runs across all games during the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season, then the market resolves to Yes. If Kyle Schwarber records 60+ home runs across all games during the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season, then the market resolves to Yes. If Shohei Ohtani records 60+ home runs across all games during the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season, then the market resolves to Yes. If Aaron Judge records 60+ home runs across all games during the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season, then the market resolves to Yes. If Eugenio Suárez records 60+ home runs across all games during the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season, then the market resolves to Yes. If Junior Caminero records 60+ home runs across all games during the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season, then the market resolves to Yes. If Juan Soto records 60+ home runs across all games during the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season, then the market resolves to Yes. If Nick Kurtz records 60+ home runs across all games during the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season, then the market resolves to Yes. If Pete Alonso records 60+ home runs across all games during the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season, then the market resolves to Yes. If Yordan Alvarez records 60+ home runs across all games during the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks typically set odds to balance potential payouts with their profit margins, incorporating a 'vig'. This market, however, is driven by the collective predictions of traders who are incentivized to assess probabilities accurately. While sportsbooks may initially offer odds based on statistical models and expert opinions, the prediction market can quickly adjust to new information and changing sentiment. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as the season approaches and more data becomes available.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief in whether a player will achieve 60+ home runs. As more traders buy a contract, its price increases, reflecting a higher probability. Conversely, selling contracts lowers the price. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a contract directly corresponds to the implied probability of the event occurring; a price of 50 means a 50% probability. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to aggregate information and generate a forecast based on the wisdom of the crowd.

This market resolves around Oct 1, 2026, following the conclusion of the 2026 professional baseball regular season. The outcome will be determined by the official home run statistics reported by Major League Baseball. Specifically, the market will resolve based on whether any player officially records 60 or more home runs during the regular season, as verified against credible public reporting. The final results will be publicly available from official MLB sources, and the market will settle accordingly.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Player injuries are a major catalyst, as the absence of a key power hitter would decrease the likelihood of a 60+ home run season. Significant changes in ballpark dimensions or the baseball itself could also influence hitting statistics. Preseason trades or free agent signings could introduce new contenders or alter existing players' opportunities. Finally, any news regarding a player's health, training, or performance during spring training and the early stages of the season will be closely watched by traders and could lead to substantial price movements in this market.