TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 85
all
2 markets
Kalshi
Polymarket
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 28, 2026
Latest in Entertainment
Closed: Sep 28, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks whether the Apple TV+ show “Primetime” will achieve a Tomatometer score of at least 80 on Rotten Tomatoes. Currently, the aggregated probability across Kalshi and Polymarket indicates a 100.0% chance of this outcome. Resolution is determined based on the “All Critics” score displayed on Rotten Tomatoes, specifically if the score is above 75 on September 28, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Keep an eye on critical reviews as they are published leading up to that date, as the Tomatometer score is heavily influenced by initial reactions.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Kalshi offers markets with multiple, distinct thresholds, while Polymarket focuses on individual threshold questions. This creates a fragmented view of the overall probability distribution.Hero tip: Focus on the specific threshold you believe is most likely to be crossed. Don't assume a 'Yes' on one market implies a 'Yes' on others.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Polymarket asks if the Tomatometer score will reach *at least* a specific value (e.g., 70, 80, 90). Question: Will "Primetime" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?
- Kalshi: Kalshi presents a series of separate markets, each testing a different threshold. If the Tomatometer score is *above* a certain value, the market resolves to 'Yes'. "If Primetime has a Tomatometer score of above 45 on Sep 28, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes."
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the displayed Rotten Tomatoes "All Critics" Tomatometer score for Primetime is at least equal to the specified number at 10:00 AM ET on September 28, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If, for any reason, the resolution data is unavailable at this market's specified end time, the resolution source will be checked until the relevant data is available. This market will resolve to "No" if no data is available by October 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Kalshi
The event evaluates whether the film Primetime achieves specific Tomatometer score thresholds as assessed by Rotten Tomatoes on September 28, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Each market corresponds to a distinct numerical threshold, and the outcome for each is determined by comparing the film's final Tomatometer score against that threshold. A market resolves to "Yes" only if the Tomatometer score strictly exceeds the specified value; for instance, a score equal to or below the threshold results in a "No" outcome. All markets are finalized on the Monday following the film's wide release. It is important to note that Rotten Tomatoes has not endorsed these markets, and any references to the platform are purely descriptive, with no implied affiliation or endorsement by Rotten Tomatoes.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. Analysts typically base their predictions on subjective evaluations and industry knowledge, whereas prediction markets aggregate the wisdom of the crowd, reflecting a broader range of information and potential biases. This market’s price action can be seen as a probabilistic forecast, showing the likelihood of different Rotten Tomatoes scores. Discrepancies between market prices and analyst opinions can highlight areas of disagreement or overlooked factors, providing valuable insights for those following the series’ reception.