TOTAL VOLUME:

$142.4b

24H VOL:

$104,871,197

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,643,541,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,592,701,755

469,827

Markets across

35,657

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,899

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Prime Minister of Spain after the next election?
limitless
kalshi

Prime Minister of Spain after the next election?

Jul 9, 2026, 4:30 PM EST - Aug 22, 2028, 10:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$15,900
Volume 24h:
$466
52%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$11,373
2%

Alberto Núñez Feijóo

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Limitless

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Aug 22, 2028

Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo become Prime Minister of Spain following the next Spanish general election?

78%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 80¢ buys you 125 shares | Odds: 78% Total Payout: $125 | Net Profit: $25 Multiplier: 1.25x | ROI: 25% | APY: 13% 677 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Alberto Núñez Feijóo

Trade
78%
2%
Yes 80¢No 22¢
2¢
N/A
$3,461
0.18%
23%
$2,003
1y 10mo 1w
active
limitless

Alberto Núñez Feijóo

Trade
N/A
N/A
7¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1y 10mo 1w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
78%
Yes 80¢No 22¢
Avg: 4.5¢Max: 7¢
kalshi

Pedro Sánchez

Trade
17%
1%
Yes 19¢No 83¢
2¢
N/A
$7,013
3%
37%
$4,563
1y 10mo 1w
active
limitless

Pedro Sánchez

Trade
N/A
N/A
8.5¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1y 10mo 1w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
17%
Yes 19¢No 83¢
Avg: 5.3¢Max: 8.5¢
limitless

Santiago Abascal

Trade
7%
1%
Yes 6.8¢No 93.3¢
6.5¢
N/A
$20
0%
100%
N/A
1y 10mo 1w
active
kalshi

Santiago Abascal

Trade
5%
2%
Yes 7¢No 95¢
2¢
N/A
$5,406
5%
69%
$4,806
1y 10mo 1w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
5%
Yes 6.9¢No 94.2¢
Avg: 4.3¢Max: 6.5¢
Total markets: 6

Description

This group asks who will become the next Prime Minister of Spain following the next general election. Resolution depends on formal appointment, swearing-in, or investment according to constitutional procedures, and commanding the confidence of parliament. The market considers a new government formation, and has a deadline of August 22, 2028, or immediate resolution if new elections are called.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms utilize the same core resolution criteria, focusing on formal appointment, parliamentary confidence, and a deadline for government formation.Primary resolution logic: Congress of Deputies and King of Spain

Core resolution logic:

  • The first person formally appointed, sworn in, or invested as Prime Minister according to Spanish constitutional procedures will resolve the market to 'Yes'.
  • If no government forms by August 22, 2028, or new elections are called before that date, the market resolves to 'No one'.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Caretaker Government: A Prime Minister serving in a caretaker or acting capacity from the previous government will not resolve the market to 'Yes'.
  • Constitutional Requirements: The individual must meet all constitutional requirements to hold the office of Prime Minister.
Timing: Resolution will occur upon the formal appointment, swearing-in, or investment of a new Prime Minister, or on August 22, 2028, if no government has formed, or immediately if new elections are called.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Kalshi

Resolution requires that the designated individual become Prime Minister as a direct result of government formation following Spain's next general election, meeting all constitutional requirements and becoming formally appointed, sworn in, or invested according to constitutional procedures before the August 22, 2028 deadline. The individual must command the confidence of parliament and exercise the full powers of the office, excluding any caretaker or acting capacity from a previous government. If no government successfully forms by the deadline, the market resolves to "No one" where available as an option, or No for all other outcomes. If new elections are called before government formation is completed, the market immediately resolves to "No one" (where available) or No for all other outcomes, regardless of the original deadline.

Limitless

If Alberto Núñez Feijóo becomes Prime Minister of Spain as a result of government formation following the next Spanish general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Aug 22, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of government formation following the election, is formally appointed, sworn in, or invested as Prime Minister according to the country's constitutional procedures, commands the confidence of the parliament/legislature, and exercises the full powers of the office (not serving in a caretaker/acting capacity from the previous government). If no government forms by Aug 22, 2028, the Contract resolves to "No one" if that is an option and No for all other strikes. If new elections are called before government formation, the Contract resolves to "No one" immediately and No for all other strikes. Outcome verified from Congress of Deputies and King of Spain.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi and Limitless, the Spanish Prime Minister market dashboard tracks predictions on who will become the next Prime Minister of Spain following the next general election. Currently, this market aggregates trading volume of $15,900, with $466 traded in the last 24 hours. The dashboard displays the probabilities assigned to various candidates by traders on both platforms, offering a consensus view of potential outcomes. Kalshi currently favors Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo become Prime Minister of Spain following the next Spanish general election? at 78.0%, while Limitless leans toward Prime Minister of Spain after the next election?: Santiago Abascal at 6.8%.

Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls capture stated preferences, this market reflects what people are willing to *bet* will happen, which can incorporate a broader range of factors, including strategic considerations and hidden information. The difference between prediction market probabilities and polling data can sometimes be significant, particularly in complex political scenarios. This market provides a unique signal based on financial incentives, potentially offering a more accurate forecast than polls alone.

Kalshi and Limitless can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Prices on Kalshi and Limitless for the Spanish Prime Minister market can diverge due to several factors. Differences in trader demographics, trading strategies, and available liquidity on each platform contribute to price discrepancies. Additionally, the specific mechanisms for price discovery – how traders place bets and how those bets influence probabilities – may vary between Kalshi and Limitless. These nuances can lead to differing assessments of the likelihood of each candidate becoming Prime Minister, even when considering the same underlying event.

This market resolves around Aug 22, 2028, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on which candidate is officially declared the Prime Minister of Spain following the next general election. The official announcement from the relevant electoral authorities will serve as the determining factor. This market aims to predict the actual outcome of the election, not pre-election polls or projections.

Several signals and events could significantly impact this market. Major political developments, such as shifts in party alliances, unexpected candidate endorsements, or significant economic news, could all cause price fluctuations. Changes in polling data, while not directly reflected in the market, could influence trader sentiment. Furthermore, any unforeseen events impacting the political landscape, such as a major scandal or a change in leadership within a key party, could lead to substantial movement in the odds. The market will continuously adjust to incorporate new information as it becomes available.