TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$85,014,378
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,391,695,592
394,774
Markets across
30,069
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,615
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 250K
- Kalshi
Above 250K - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 13, 2026
Latest in Entertainment
Closed: Sep 13, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the performance of a specific music track during a defined week, focusing on how many times it is streamed in the United States. The outcome depends on whether the stream count surpasses various thresholds, providing insight into the track's popularity over that period.
Kalshi
The event evaluates multiple thresholds for streams of the track "PRIMA" by ADÉLA during the week from September 04 to September 10, 2026, in the U.S. Each market corresponds to a specific stream count benchmark, ranging from 50,000 to over 10 million streams. All markets will resolve based on data reported by Luminate’s API at 10:00 AM ET on the Sunday immediately following the tracking week. Luminate Data, LLC serves as a neutral metrics provider and does not endorse or influence the outcomes of any prediction markets. If the actual stream count for the track meets or exceeds the threshold specified in a given market, that market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. The structure allows participants to assess the likelihood of the track achieving various levels of streaming success within the specified timeframe.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinion. Often, this market reflects a broader range of perspectives than traditional forecasts, potentially incorporating information not readily available to analysts. Discrepancies can arise from differing interpretations of available data, varying levels of confidence, or the influence of unforeseen events. It’s valuable to consider both sources when forming your own assessment of the likely outcome for the PRIMA series’ first-week streaming numbers.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices converge to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for real-time adjustments based on new information and changing sentiment regarding the expected streaming performance of the PRIMA series.
This market resolves around Sep 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the officially reported streaming numbers for the PRIMA series during its first week of release. These figures will be sourced from official streaming platforms and verified against credible public sources to ensure accuracy and transparency. The market will then settle based on which outcome—the number of streams—was most accurately predicted by the contracts traded on Kalshi.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before it resolves. Early reviews of the PRIMA series, marketing campaign effectiveness, and any unexpected publicity—positive or negative—could all influence trader sentiment. Additionally, competitor releases in the same genre during the first week could impact viewership. Any news regarding the availability of the series on different streaming platforms or changes in subscription rates could also be a catalyst. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding potential shifts in the odds for this market.
