TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above $100.00
- Kalshi
Above $100.00 - Kalshi
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolved Aug 2, 2026
Latest in Entertainment
Closed: Aug 1, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the retail price of YSL Y fragrance (3.3 oz) on Jomashop during July 2026. The price may include discounts and promotions and is measured in USD excluding taxes and fees.
Kalshi
The market resolves to Yes at each threshold if the market price of YSL Y (3.3 oz) on Jomashop is above the specified dollar amount during July 2026. The market resolves based on the price displayed on Jomashop, which may include discounts, promotions, or sale pricing. Prices are in USD, rounded to two decimal places, and exclude duties, taxes, and additional fees. If no data is available, the last known value will be used. If no prior value exists, all markets resolve to No. Revisions after initial publication will not affect resolution.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds reflect real-money commitments from traders and often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they incorporate crowdsourced expectations and forward-looking sentiment. While fashion and luxury goods analysts may publish price targets or trend reports, this market distills collective trader judgment into a single probability. The two approaches complement each other: analysts provide fundamental research, while prediction markets reveal what informed participants actually believe will happen.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to different price outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each share represents a claim on a specific price range or level for YSL Y in July 2026, and the market price of each outcome reflects supply and demand. As new information emerges or trader conviction shifts, the bid-ask spreads adjust, allowing the market to discover the true probability in real time.
This market resolves around Aug 1, 2026, at which point the outcome is confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will reflect the actual price of YSL Y during the specified period in July 2026. All open positions settle according to which outcome bracket the final price falls into, and traders are paid out proportionally based on their holdings.
Several factors could shift this market significantly: luxury brand pricing announcements, changes in YSL's distribution strategy, currency fluctuations affecting international pricing, broader luxury market trends, and consumer demand signals. Seasonal promotions, new product launches, or shifts in brand positioning could all influence retailer pricing. Additionally, macroeconomic conditions and competitor pricing moves may prompt traders to reassess their positions, creating volatility in the weeks leading up to July 2026.
