TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$218,201,443
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,797,601
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,873,651
500,842
Markets across
13,663
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,809
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Price of Dozen Eggs in January
Volume:
$125,959
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks the price of a dozen Grade A large eggs in the U.S. during January 2026, as measured by the St. Louis Fed's FRED database (sourced from BLS CPI data). Polymarket offers bracket-based resolution across nine price ranges, while Kalshi offers a binary yes/no on whether prices rise above the prior month.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi measure fundamentally different settlement values: Polymarket resolves to an absolute price bracket from St. Louis Fed data, while Kalshi resolves to a binary month-over-month price change direction.Hero Tip:
Understand that Polymarket and Kalshi are not equivalent markets. Polymarket is a price-level prediction; Kalshi is a price-direction prediction. You cannot use one to hedge the other. Check December 2025 egg prices before trading Kalshi to understand the baseline for the 0% threshold.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Resolves to the price bracket containing the official St. Louis Fed FRED series APU0000708111 value for January 2026, published February 11, 2026, measured to three decimal places. Nine mutually exclusive bracket outcomes ranging from <$2.50 to >$4.00. If the price falls exactly on a bracket boundary, resolves to the higher bracket.
- Kalshi: Binary yes/no resolution: YES if the price of eggs rises by above 0% in January 2026 (compared to prior month), NO otherwise. This is a relative change metric, not an absolute price level.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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