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Price of Dozen Eggs in August?
Commodities
kalshi
polymarket

Price of Dozen Eggs in August?

Total volume:
$16,029
Volume 24h:
$126
80%
Liquidity:
$11,499
24%
Open interest:
$125
0%

Above $2.35

 - Kalshi

Above $2.35 - Kalshi

100%

+0%

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

No volume data

Aug 19

Aug 20

Aug 24

Aug 24

Aug 24

Aug 26

Aug 26

Vol.

$0.0

·

Resolves Sep 11, 2026

Time left: 05d:23h:10m

Will reported weighted average of the Chemical Lean Beef trim (0.65%) on USDA be above $2.35 in August 2026?

63%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 100¢ buys you 100 shares | Odds: 63% Total Payout: $100 | Net Profit: $0 Multiplier: 1.00x | ROI: 0% | APY: 0% Illiquid market 5 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
MUI X License key version mismatch
Total markets: 21

Description

This event group tracks the price of a dozen eggs in August 2026 across two prediction markets. The markets will resolve based on different data sources and price thresholds, potentially leading to divergent outcomes.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Fundamentally different underlying assets and resolution sources (egg prices vs. beef trim prices)Hero tip: Traders should be extremely cautious as these markets resolve to completely different economic indicators. Cross-market arbitrage opportunities exist but carry significant model risk due to the lack of correlation between egg prices and beef trim prices.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves based on St. Louis Fed's August 2026 data point for Eggs, Grade A, Large (Cost per Dozen) in U.S. City Average, measured to the third decimal place. Market resolves to higher range bracket if price falls exactly between two brackets.
  • Kalshi: Resolves based on USDA reported weighted average of Chemical Lean Beef trim (0.65%) in August 2026, with Yes outcomes triggered if price exceeds any of multiple thresholds starting at $2.05/lb.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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Polymarket

This market will resolve to the bracket within which the price for "Eggs, Grade A, Large (Cost per Dozen) in U.S. City Average" lies when the August data point is published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000708111). The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for egg prices on the BLS's CPI release. The August release is presently scheduled for September 11, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon the update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the USDA AMS National/Regional Weekly Boneless Processing Beef and Beef Trimmings report, which publishes weighted average prices for Chemical Lean Beef Trim (0.65%) in USD per pound. Each price threshold resolves independently to Yes if the reported weighted average meets or exceeds that strike value at any point during August 2026. A single qualifying weekly print is sufficient; the price need not remain above the threshold. If a week shows zero reported trades or a $0.00 weighted average, that week's data is treated as unavailable and the most recently valid weekly value is substituted. If no valid data exists for the entire period, all thresholds resolve to No. Prices reflect USDA's FOB Plant negotiated sales basis, rounded to two decimal places, excluding handling, freight, or transaction fees. Post-publication revisions to weekly reports do not affect resolution.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the egg price market aggregates activity across multiple venues, showing how traders on Polymarket and Kalshi price the likelihood of different price ranges for a dozen eggs in August. It displays current odds, volume of $9,236, and 24-hour volume of $11, offering a consensus view of market expectations.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through trader consensus, often reflecting real-time sentiment and short-term expectations that can diverge from longer-term analyst forecasts. While analysts may consider macro trends and supply studies, prediction market odds capture immediate market dynamics and can therefore show different probabilities, sometimes highlighting unexpected shifts in consumer behavior or supply chain news.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through user-driven trading, while Kalshi may incorporate additional market-making or liquidity provisions. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. These differences in structure and participant behavior often lead to pricing variations. For example, Polymarket currently favors Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.20–$2.30 in August? at 30.9%, while Kalshi leans toward Will reported weighted average of the Chemical Lean Beef trim (0.65%) on USDA be above $2.35 in August 2026? at 63.0%. The spread of 32.1 points reflects how each venue balances supply and demand uniquely, especially for a dynamic topic like the egg price market.

This market resolves around Sep 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final price of a dozen eggs in August will be compared against the defined ranges to determine the correct result.

Several signals could shift expectations in this market before Sep 11, 2026. Agricultural reports on egg production, changes in feed costs, or supply-chain disruptions are key drivers. Consumer demand fluctuations—driven by seasonal trends or economic shifts—may also influence prices. Additionally, weather events impacting farming regions can create volatility. As Sep 11, 2026 approaches, real-time data releases and trading activity will refine the odds, potentially widening or narrowing the gap between platforms based on how each interprets new information.