TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above $200.00
- Kalshi
Above $200.00 - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Aug 2, 2026
Closed: Aug 1, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
Dior Sauvage fragrance (3.4 oz bottle) pricing will be tracked on Jomashop during July 2026. The market examines whether the displayed retail price reaches various price thresholds, accounting for any active discounts or promotions on the platform.
Kalshi
Resolution is based on the market price of Dior Sauvage (3.4 oz) displayed on Jomashop during July 2026, which may include discounts, promotions, or sale pricing. All prices are in USD, rounded to two decimal places, and exclude duties, taxes, and additional fees. If no pricing data is available for July 2026, the last known historical value will be used for resolution. If no prior pricing data exists at all, all outcomes resolve to No. Any revisions made to Jomashop's pricing information after the market's initial publication date will not affect the resolution outcome. Verification of the final price is obtained directly from Jomashop.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they aggregate real-time trader conviction rather than periodic expert opinions. In this market, the odds reflect what active participants believe the fragrance price will be, incorporating recent retail trends, inflation expectations, and brand pricing strategy. Analyst forecasts, by contrast, may rely on historical data or broader economic models. Comparing the two can reveal where the crowd sees pricing risk that analysts may have underweighted or overestimated, making prediction markets a useful complement to conventional research.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to different price outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome contract trades independently, and the price of each reflects the collective belief in that scenario. Traders profit by correctly predicting which price range Dior Sauvage will occupy in July 2026. The platform's matching engine ensures transparent price discovery, and you can enter limit or market orders to adjust your position based on your own forecast and risk tolerance.
This market resolves around Aug 1, 2026, at which point the actual retail price of Dior Sauvage in July 2026 will be verified against credible public sources. The outcome is determined by comparing the confirmed price to the predefined outcome brackets offered in the contract. Once the event date passes and pricing data becomes available, the winning outcome is locked in and traders' positions settle accordingly. Resolution typically occurs within days of the outcome becoming verifiable through reliable reporting.
Several catalysts could shift odds in this market. Luxury brand earnings reports and guidance on pricing strategy may signal confidence in price increases. Broader inflation trends and currency fluctuations affect fragrance retail costs globally. Competitor pricing moves and shifts in consumer demand for premium fragrances could reshape expectations. Supply chain disruptions or changes in raw material costs may influence Dior's margin and pricing decisions. Additionally, luxury market consolidation news or shifts in retail distribution could alter the competitive landscape, prompting traders to reassess their price forecasts.
