TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 13, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the potential for a celebrity to attract exceptionally high viewership on a specific platform during a defined timeframe. It focuses on whether view counts surpass various thresholds, reflecting interest and engagement levels over a short period.
Kalshi
The event evaluates whether Post Malone achieves specified global daily view count thresholds on YouTube within the period of October 5 to October 11, 2026. Each market corresponds to a different view count benchmark, ranging from above 5 million to above 8 million views. For any market to resolve as 'Yes,' Post Malone must surpass the respective threshold at any point during the specified week. All view counts will be determined using data displayed from a New York IP address via YouTube Charts, with 'Global' selected as the location filter. It is explicitly noted that YouTube has not endorsed these markets, and any references to YouTube are purely descriptive, indicating no formal affiliation or endorsement by YouTube.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinions. Often, this market reflects a broader range of perspectives than traditional forecasts, potentially incorporating information not readily available to analysts. If analysts predict a certain daily view count for Post Malone, it's insightful to see whether traders on Kalshi agree, disagree, or assign a different probability to that outcome. Discrepancies can highlight overlooked factors or varying interpretations of available data.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust dynamically, providing a real-time indication of expectations for Post Malone’s daily view counts during the specified period. This mechanism allows for a fluid and responsive pricing system based on the wisdom of the crowd.
This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The highest daily view count for Post Malone between October 5, 2026, and October 11, 2026, as reported by a widely recognized and trusted source for video statistics, will determine the winning outcome in this market. The resolution will be based on publicly available data and will reflect the peak viewership achieved during that timeframe.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Any major announcements regarding Post Malone’s activities during the specified week, such as new music releases, high-profile appearances, or viral social media moments, could drive increased viewership. Unexpected trends in online video consumption or changes in platform algorithms could also influence viewing figures. Furthermore, news related to competing artists or entertainment events might impact attention towards Post Malone, affecting the probabilities reflected in this market.
