TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
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OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 6, 5:42 PM EST
Predict
In the upcoming match between Portugal and Spain, scheduled for July 6, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Portugal" if Portugal are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Spain" if Spain are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If neither team scores within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve "Neither". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
In the upcoming match between Portugal and Spain, scheduled for July 6, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Portugal" if Portugal are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Spain" if Spain are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If neither team scores within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve "Neither". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional sportsbook lines because they aggregate real-time trader conviction rather than following fixed bookmaker margins. While sportsbooks adjust odds to balance liability, this market prices outcomes through continuous trading, sometimes reflecting sharper or earlier signals about team form, injuries, or tactical adjustments. Comparing the two can reveal where public betting sentiment differs from professional oddsmakers, though both aim to estimate the true probability of the first goal.
On Predict, traders buy and sell shares representing each outcome, with the share price directly reflecting the market's probability estimate. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more capital flowing toward Portugal or Spain scoring first, the higher that outcome's price rises. This continuous auction mechanism means prices adjust instantly to new information, trades, and shifting expectations, creating a dynamic real-time forecast of which team is favored to break the deadlock.
This market resolves around Jul 6, 2026, once the Portugal vs. Spain match concludes and the first goal is verified. The outcome is determined by whichever team scores the opening goal, confirmed against credible public reporting of the match result. Early resolution may occur if one team scores first and the match is abandoned, though standard resolution awaits final match completion and official confirmation of the first-goal scorer.
Key catalysts include team news such as injuries to key strikers or defensive players, official lineups released before kickoff, and recent form trends in both squads. Tactical announcements or coaching changes can shift expectations about attacking intent. Weather conditions at the venue, head-to-head historical patterns, and any late-breaking developments in player availability will likely trigger repricing. As match time approaches, each update typically narrows uncertainty and sharpens the market's probability estimate.