TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 2, 9:09 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks the final regulation-time score of the Portugal vs Croatia FIFA World Cup match scheduled for July 2, 2026. On Kalshi, the leading outcome—a 1-1 draw—stands at 29.0%, while Croatia winning 1-0 is at 24.0%. The market resolves based on the official result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. Watch the match kickoff on July 2, 2026, as the final whistle after regulation will determine the settlement outcome.
The market resolves based on the final score of the Portugal vs Croatia professional FIFA World Cup soccer game originally scheduled for July 2, 2026, measured after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (regulation time only, excluding extra time or penalties). Each possible regulation time correct score outcome—including draws at 0-0, 1-1, 2-2, and 3-3, as well as all combinations of Portugal and Croatia victories ranging from 1-0 to 5-2 for Portugal and 1-0 to 4-3 for Croatia—constitutes a separate resolution condition. The market captures the complete range of plausible regulation-time scorelines for this World Cup fixture.
Prediction market odds and sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different participant bases and incentive structures. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and manage risk, while prediction markets like this one aggregate beliefs from traders who profit by forecasting accurately. Sportsbook odds typically include built-in margins, whereas prediction markets can offer tighter pricing when liquidity is high. Comparing the two reveals whether professional bettors and casual traders see the Portugal vs Croatia scoreline differently, sometimes exposing value or consensus blind spots.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to each possible correct score. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome's price reflects the probability traders assign to it, with higher prices indicating greater confidence. As new information emerges—injuries, team form, or pre-match analysis—traders adjust their positions, moving prices up or down. The continuous two-sided market ensures transparent, real-time pricing that responds immediately to shifting expectations about the match outcome.
This market resolves around Jul 3, 2026, once the Portugal vs Croatia match concludes and the final regulation-time score is confirmed. The outcome is verified against credible public sources reporting the official result. Only goals scored during the 90 minutes of regular play count; extra time and penalty shootouts do not affect this market. Resolution occurs shortly after the match ends and the score is widely published by major sports news outlets.
Team news—injuries to key players, lineup changes, or tactical shifts—can significantly alter scoreline probabilities. Pre-match analysis from respected analysts or unexpected betting patterns may also shift trader sentiment. Weather conditions, referee assignments, or recent form updates can influence expectations about pace and goal-scoring likelihood. As kickoff approaches, late-breaking developments like last-minute roster decisions or venue changes could trigger sharp price movements. During the match itself, early goals, red cards, or momentum swings will cause rapid repricing across all possible outcomes.