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Portugal vs. Croatia - First Team to Score
kalshi
polymarket
predict

Which team will score first: Portugal or Croatia?

Volume:
$1,696,116

Croatia

all

3 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

Predict

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 3, 2026

Closed: Jul 2, 9:29 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Croatia

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$308,046
N/A
N/A
$214,418
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Croatia

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$81,337
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

HRV

View
N/A
N/A
—
$54,080
$28,126
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

No Goal

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$655,460
N/A
N/A
$510,569
Settled
No
polymarket

Neither

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$46,989
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Neither

View
N/A
N/A
—
$627
$22,463
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Portugal

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$409,774
N/A
N/A
$327,264
Settled
No
polymarket

Portugal

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$95,579
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

PRT

View
N/A
N/A
—
$705
$48,343
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 9

Intro

This market tracks which team, if any, scores the opening goal in the Portugal vs. Croatia FIFA World Cup match. Across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Predict, the consensus probability for Croatia to score first stands at 100.0%. Resolution is determined by official governing body statistics and covers the entire match including regulation, stoppage time, and any extra time periods. Watch for the match kickoff on July 2, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET, as the first goal scored during this window will determine the market outcome.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Time window scope mismatch between platforms. Polymarket and Predict restrict resolution to regulation + stoppage time (90 minutes), while Kalshi includes extra time periods in its resolution window.Hero tip: Monitor whether the match reaches extra time. If it does and a goal is scored in extra time, Polymarket/Predict will resolve to Neither while Kalshi resolves to the scoring team. This creates a potential arbitrage or hedge opportunity depending on market prices.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves based on first goal within 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time only. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs excluded. If neither team scores in regulation + stoppage, resolves to Neither. If match is postponed, market remains open. If canceled with no makeup, resolves to Neither.
  • Kalshi: Resolves based on first goal during entire game including regulation, stoppage, and any extra time periods. Three separate markets cover Portugal first, Croatia first, or neither team scoring. Scope explicitly includes extra time.
  • Predict: Resolves based on first goal within 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time only. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs excluded. Matches Polymarket logic exactly. If neither team scores in regulation + stoppage, resolves to Neither. If match is postponed, market remains open. If canceled with no makeup, resolves to Neither.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming match between Portugal and Croatia, scheduled for July 2, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Portugal" if Portugal are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Croatia" if Croatia are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If neither team scores within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve "Neither". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by which team records the first goal during the complete match, encompassing regulation time, stoppage time, and any extra time periods. The match in question is the Portugal vs Croatia professional FIFA World Cup soccer game originally scheduled for July 2, 2026. If the first goal scored is an own goal, the market resolves based on the team officially awarded the goal credit. Possible outcomes include Portugal scoring first, Croatia scoring first, or no goal being scored during the entire match. This market is descriptive in nature and has not been endorsed by FIFA or any associated marks.

Predict

In the upcoming match between Portugal and Croatia, scheduled for July 2, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Portugal" if Portugal are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Croatia" if Croatia are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If neither team scores within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve "Neither". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket operate on continuous trader-set pricing rather than fixed sportsbook lines. This means odds update in real time based on order flow and new information, often reflecting sharper probability estimates than traditional betting sites. Sportsbooks typically build in wider margins and adjust lines more slowly to manage liability. For this matchup, comparing prediction market prices to major sportsbooks can reveal whether one side is undervalued, though prediction markets generally tighten around major events as more capital enters.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Differences arise because each platform attracts distinct trader bases, liquidity pools, and fee structures. Kalshi and Polymarket may also interpret outcome definitions slightly differently or settle at different times. Arbitrage traders typically exploit these gaps, but temporary spreads persist due to capital constraints and withdrawal friction. Monitoring both platforms reveals where smart money is concentrating and can signal shifts in market sentiment before one side fully reprices.

Key catalysts include team news such as injuries to star strikers, lineup announcements, and recent form trends. Betting syndicates and professional traders often move markets sharply hours before kickoff as they deploy capital. Weather conditions, referee assignments, and head-to-head historical patterns can also shift odds. Social media sentiment and mainstream sports coverage may drive retail traders in or out. Watch for late-breaking tactical changes or unexpected absences that could alter attacking balance and first-goal probabilities.