TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,590,312
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,439,516,703
404,175
Markets across
30,277
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,685
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 27, 11:08 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Petr Nesterov and Giorgio Tabacco in the Porto 2, Portugal, Qualifying, originally scheduled for September 27, 2026 at 7:20AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Petr Nesterov' if Petr Nesterov advances against Giorgio Tabacco. This market will resolve to 'Giorgio Tabacco' if Giorgio Tabacco advances against Petr Nesterov. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Petr Nesterov and Giorgio Tabacco in the Porto 2, Portugal, Qualifying, originally scheduled for September 27, 2026 at 7:20AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Petr Nesterov' if Petr Nesterov advances against Giorgio Tabacco. This market will resolve to 'Giorgio Tabacco' if Giorgio Tabacco advances against Petr Nesterov. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant number of people believe a sportsbook is mispricing an outcome, they can express that view through trading on Polymarket. This can lead to prediction market odds diverging from, or converging towards, sportsbook lines as new information becomes available and opinions shift. It’s a fascinating comparison of different forecasting methods.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of a particular outcome. As more shares are purchased for a specific outcome, its price increases, reflecting a higher implied probability. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market reflects the collective intelligence of those trading it, creating a real-time forecast for the Porto 2 match.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Porto 2 match between Petr Nesterov and Giorgio Tabacco. The platform will rely on publicly available and trusted sources to determine the winner, ensuring a transparent and verifiable outcome. Traders should monitor official announcements regarding the match to stay informed about the resolution process and potential timelines.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Any news regarding the condition of either player, Petr Nesterov or Giorgio Tabacco, such as injuries or illness, would likely impact trading activity. Changes in their recent performance, announced strategies, or even weather conditions affecting the match could also influence traders' beliefs. Unexpected announcements related to the event itself, or shifts in public sentiment, could all contribute to price fluctuations in this market on Polymarket as traders adjust their positions.