TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the performance of the song "Popstar" by Tinashe over a one-week period in late September to early October 2026. It evaluates whether the song achieves various streaming milestones in the U.S. market during this specific timeframe.
Kalshi
The event evaluates multiple streaming thresholds for Tinashe's song "Popstar" during the week from September 25 to October 1, 2026, in the U.S. market. All markets resolve based on data reported by Luminate’s API at 10:00 AM ET on the Sunday following the tracking week. Each market has a specific numerical threshold (ranging from 50,000 to 10 million streams); if the reported streams exceed the threshold, that market resolves to Yes. Luminate Data, LLC serves as the neutral metrics provider and does not endorse or influence market outcomes.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals interesting insights into collective wisdom versus expert opinion. Often, this market demonstrates a different perspective than pre-release predictions from music industry analysts. While analysts may focus on factors like pre-save numbers and social media engagement, the market incorporates a broader range of information and real-time sentiment. Discrepancies can arise from differing interpretations of data or the market’s ability to quickly adjust to unexpected news or trends surrounding the popstar’s release.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential streaming numbers. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders set the odds by placing bids and asks, and the market constantly adjusts to new information and changing sentiment. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a real-time assessment of expectations regarding the popstar’s first-week streaming performance.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official first-week streaming numbers are verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the total streams across major streaming platforms, as reported by official sources. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of the outcome, reflecting the actual performance of the popstar’s new release. The market will then settle based on which outcome aligns with the verified streaming data.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before resolution. Unexpected viral trends on platforms like TikTok, major endorsements from influential figures, or even critical reviews could all impact streaming numbers. Any news regarding the popstar’s promotional activities, such as television appearances or concert announcements, could also influence trading activity. Furthermore, competitor releases happening simultaneously could shift attention and affect the market’s assessment of the popstar’s potential streaming success. These factors contribute to the dynamic nature of this market.
