TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,324,530

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,434,646,834

406,019

Markets across

30,401

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Poland vs. Germany
polymarket
kalshi

Poland vs. Germany

Volume:
$211,305

Germany

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 31, 2026

Closed: Aug 30, 11:24 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Germany

View
100%
41%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$90,887
N/A
N/A
$51,507
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Germany (-7.5)

View
0%
51%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$137
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 181.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.9¢
N/A
$80
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Poland

View
0%
24%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$100,552
N/A
N/A
$52,454
Settled
No
polymarket

Poland vs. Germany

View
0%
25%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$19,648
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 5

Intro

This market tracks the winner of the men's professional FIBA World Cup Qualifiers basketball game between Poland and Germany. The aggregated consensus probability for Poland vs. Germany is 10.0%, with Spread: Germany (-7.5) at 10.0%. Data is aggregated from Polymarket and Kalshi, with resolution sourced from fiba.basketball. Watch for the game result on August 30, 2026, to determine the outcome.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Fundamental market structure divergence between binary outcome (Polymarket) and yes/no outcome (Kalshi)Hero tip: Do not treat these markets as interchangeable. Polymarket requires precise team identification while Kalshi treats any winner as a Yes. Consider hedging positions carefully.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to "Poland" if Poland wins, "Germany" if Germany wins. Resolves 50-50 if the game is canceled entirely with no make-up game. Result determined by final score including overtime.
  • Kalshi: Resolves to Yes if either Poland OR Germany wins. Does not distinguish between the two possible winners, making it a yes/no market rather than a binary outcome market.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming FIBA WCQ Europe game, scheduled for August 30 at 6:00AM ET: If the Poland win, the market will resolve to "Poland". If the Germany win, the market will resolve to "Germany". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.

Kalshi

Markets resolve to Yes if the specified team wins the men's professional FIBA World Cup Qualifiers basketball game originally scheduled for Aug 30, 2026, at the stated time EDT. If the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original time, markets remain open and resolve based on the final result. If the game is cancelled or does not start within 48 hours, all markets resolve to a fair price.