TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$87,176,691
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,391,958,194
394,660
Markets across
30,119
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,626
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 1, 10:04 PM EST
Kalshi
This event predicts individual team run totals for Pittsburgh and Philadelphia in their July 1, 2026 baseball game. Bettors can separately wager on whether each team will exceed various run thresholds.
Resolution is determined by the individual run totals scored by Pittsburgh and Philadelphia in the professional baseball game originally scheduled for July 1, 2026 at 6:40 PM EDT. Each outcome corresponds to a specific team and run threshold, with resolution to Yes occurring if that team's final score exceeds the specified threshold. The game's final official score, as recorded by the league, determines the result for each team independently.
Prediction market odds and traditional sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different participant bases and incentive structures. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and lock in profit margins, while prediction markets like this one are driven by traders risking real capital on their beliefs about the outcome. Prediction markets can sometimes offer sharper, more efficient pricing because traders have direct financial exposure and compete to exploit mispricings. However, sportsbooks may move faster on breaking news, so comparing both sources provides valuable context for informed decision-making.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where traders submit bids and asks for team total contracts. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each outcome reflects the equilibrium between buyers and sellers at any given moment. As new information emerges—injuries, weather updates, or betting action—traders adjust their orders, causing prices to shift. This continuous price discovery process means the market price represents an aggregated forecast from all active traders, updated in real time throughout the trading session.
This market resolves around Jul 2, 2026, once the Pittsburgh vs Philadelphia game concludes and the final combined team total is verified. The outcome is confirmed using credible public reporting from official league sources and sports data providers. Traders holding positions in this market will see their contracts settle based on whether the actual combined score falls above or below the strike price. Resolution typically occurs within hours of game completion, allowing traders to collect winnings or close losing positions promptly.
Several catalysts can shift prices in this market before resolution. Injury announcements to key offensive players, weather forecasts predicting rain or wind, and changes in team depth charts or starting lineups often trigger sharp repricing. Public betting trends and sharp money flowing into sportsbooks can also influence prediction market sentiment. Game-day conditions—coin toss outcomes, early scoring drives, or momentum swings—may cause traders to reassess their positions. Breaking news about team strategy or last-minute roster decisions typically generates the most volatile price movements in the final hours.