TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 1, 7:50 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks the outcome of the first 3 innings of the Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies professional baseball game scheduled for July 1, 2026 at 6:40 PM EDT. The result is determined by which team has the higher score after exactly 3 complete innings, or whether both teams have scored an equal number of runs.
Resolution is based on the score at the end of the first 3 innings of the Pittsburgh vs Philadelphia game originally scheduled for July 1, 2026 at 6:40 PM EDT. The market resolves to Yes for whichever outcome matches the actual result: Pittsburgh ahead, Philadelphia ahead, or tied score. If the score is tied after 3 innings, the Tie outcome resolves to Yes while all team-specific outcomes resolve to No. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and resolves after the rescheduled game concludes, within two days of the original scheduled date.
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they reflect real-money stakes and continuous price discovery. While sports analysts rely on historical data, team form, and expert judgment, this market aggregates the views of traders who have financial incentive to be accurate. Prediction markets tend to update faster when new information emerges—such as late-game roster changes or weather updates—whereas analyst predictions may lag. Comparing the two can reveal where the crowd sees value that experts may have missed, or conversely, where consensus opinion differs from market pricing.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts tied to specific outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each contract represents a claim on a particular result, and the price reflects the probability the market assigns to that outcome occurring. Traders can place limit or market orders to enter or exit positions, and prices adjust continuously based on supply and demand. The spread between bid and ask prices indicates liquidity and market confidence; tighter spreads suggest stronger consensus, while wider spreads reflect uncertainty or lower trading activity.
This market resolves around Jul 2, 2026, once the first 3 innings of the Pittsburgh vs Philadelphia game are complete and verified. The outcome is confirmed through credible public sources, ensuring accuracy and fairness for all traders. Resolution hinges on the final score or result recorded for that specific inning window, with no ambiguity about which team achieved the relevant milestone. Traders should monitor official game reporting to anticipate the exact resolution timing, as it depends on game pace and any potential delays.
Several catalysts can shift odds before first pitch and during the early innings. Roster announcements—such as a star player being ruled out or a surprise lineup change—often trigger sharp price moves. Weather updates, particularly wind direction and temperature, can influence scoring expectations. Bullpen availability and recent form of starting pitchers also matter significantly for a three-inning window. Once the game begins, early runs, errors, or momentum swings will drive real-time repricing. Injury reports or last-minute managerial decisions announced in the hours before game time can create trading opportunities for alert participants.