TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 20, 5:15 PM EST
Kalshi
The event centers around a professional football game between two teams, where a specific scoring play by either team will determine the outcome of interest. This play involves one team scoring a particular type of defensive point during the match. The occurrence of this play is what the event is focused on.
If Pittsburgh or New England record a safety in the Pittsburgh vs New England Pro Football game originally scheduled for Sep 20, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd perspective, often differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set odds to balance their risk and incorporate a profit margin, while this market represents the collective belief of informed traders. Early in the market, sportsbook odds may be more readily available and widely publicized, but as the event approaches, this market can provide a distinct signal as traders react to news and analysis. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially when new information emerges that isn’t fully priced into traditional betting lines.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing the different outcomes of the NFL game. The price of each contract reflects the probability that outcome will occur, as determined by supply and demand. As more people buy contracts for a particular outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and reflect the evolving expectations of traders. The current price indicates what traders are willing to pay for a contract that pays out if that outcome happens.
This market resolves around Sep 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the NFL game, as reported by a trusted sports data source. The market will determine which outcome is the winner based on the final score and any applicable rules governing the game. Traders who hold contracts for the winning outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts for losing outcomes will not. This ensures a clear and objective resolution process.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either team would likely cause shifts in the odds. Unexpected changes in weather conditions, such as a severe storm, could also influence the market. Furthermore, late-breaking news about team strategy or coaching decisions could lead to price movements. Public sentiment, as reflected in polls and expert analysis, can also play a role, though this market often demonstrates independent thought. Major upsets in other games that impact playoff positioning might also subtly influence trading activity.