TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 20, 3:59 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks passing interceptions for specific quarterbacks in an upcoming football game between Pittsburgh and New England. The outcome depends on whether the designated players record a certain number of interceptions during the match.
The event evaluates multiple markets centered on passing interceptions thrown by Drake Maye and Aaron Rodgers in the Pittsburgh vs New England Pro Football game scheduled for September 20, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific threshold of interceptions (1+, 2+, or 3+) for each quarterback. If the named quarterback achieves or exceeds the specified number of interceptions during the game, the respective market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. A key secondary rule applies uniformly: if either quarterback is active for the game but does not take a single snap, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game begins. However, once a quarterback takes at least one snap—regardless of whether the play is nullified by a penalty—the market outcome is determined solely by the actual number of interceptions recorded during their participation in the game. These rules ensure that markets reflect actual in-game performance while accounting for potential scenarios where a player is present but does not participate.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd effect, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which can be influenced by factors like house biases or initial line setting. Sportsbooks may also adjust their odds more slowly to news or changing information than this market, where prices can react very quickly to new developments. While sportsbooks focus on balancing action and guaranteeing profit, this market aims to accurately forecast the probability of the event occurring, leading to potentially different implied probabilities. It's important to compare and contrast both to form a well-rounded view.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes for the number of passing interceptions. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective assessment of its probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders set the odds by placing bids and asks, and the market price fluctuates based on supply and demand. As more people believe an outcome is likely, the price of the corresponding contract will increase, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to provide a real-time probability assessment.
This market resolves around Sep 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final number of passing interceptions thrown by both quarterbacks during the Pittsburgh versus New England game will be used to determine the winning contracts. The official game statistics, as reported by a trusted sports data source, will serve as the basis for verification. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on the final result of the game and the contracts they hold in this market.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding the starting quarterbacks' health, such as an injury report or confirmation of their playing status, would likely cause price movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly those predicting heavy rain or strong winds, could also impact the likelihood of interceptions. Furthermore, late-breaking news about key defensive players being sidelined or changes in defensive strategies could shift expectations. Finally, any significant shifts in public sentiment or expert analysis regarding the game’s likely outcome could also move the market.