TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 20, 3:41 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the number of passing completions achieved by specific quarterbacks in a professional football game between Pittsburgh and New England. It focuses on whether predetermined thresholds of completions are met by the designated players during the contest. Outcomes are determined purely by in-game performance metrics.
All markets in this event resolve based on the total passing completions recorded by the specified quarterback—Drake Maye or Aaron Rodgers—during the Pittsburgh vs New England Professional Football game originally scheduled for September 20, 2026. For each market, a specific threshold of completions (16+, 21+, or 26+ for Maye; 17+, 22+, or 27+ for Rodgers) must be met or exceeded for the market to resolve as 'Yes.' If the named quarterback is active for the game but does not take a single snap, the market settles at its fair market price determined before the game begins. However, once the quarterback takes at least one snap—regardless of whether that play is nullified by a penalty—the market resolves strictly according to the actual number of passing completions recorded during the game. These rules apply uniformly across all sub-markets for each quarterback, ensuring consistent evaluation of performance-based outcomes.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market incorporates a wider range of information and opinions from traders. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. Comparing these odds can provide valuable insights into where the market believes the true probability lies, and potentially identify mispricings that could be exploited for profit.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes for the number of passing completions. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions based on news, analysis, and their own predictions, leading to dynamic price fluctuations. The more traders believe an outcome is likely, the higher the price of its corresponding contract will become.
This market resolves around Sep 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of passing completions officially recorded by the NFL for the Pittsburgh versus New England game will determine the winning contract. It’s important to note that the official NFL statistics are the definitive source for resolution, and any discrepancies from other sources will not be considered. Traders should monitor official NFL data leading up to and following the game to understand the likely outcome.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding injuries to key quarterbacks or wide receivers on either team would be a major catalyst. Changes in weather conditions, particularly forecasts for heavy rain or strong winds, could also influence the number of passing attempts and completions. Unexpected strategic shifts announced by either coaching staff, or even in-game adjustments during the contest, could also move the market. Finally, any late-breaking news related to player availability or game-day decisions will likely cause price fluctuations.