TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 20, 3:41 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on predicting the outcome of a specific quarter in an upcoming football game between Pittsburgh and New England. It assesses how much one team might outscore the other during that quarter, allowing participants to speculate on the relative performance of each team in a confined timeframe.
The markets resolve based on the point differential between Pittsburgh and New England exclusively during the third quarter of their game scheduled for September 20, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific threshold by which either team must win that quarter to resolve as 'Yes.' For markets where New England must win by more than a designated margin (ranging from 1.5 to 10.5 points), the outcome depends on whether New England outscores Pittsburgh by exceeding that margin in the third quarter alone. Conversely, markets where Pittsburgh must win by more than a certain margin (ranging from 2.5 to 10.5 points) resolve positively only if Pittsburgh achieves that margin over New England in points scored during that same quarter. All markets exclusively consider points scored during the third quarter, with no regard to the overall game outcome or points from other quarters. The markets are independent, meaning each resolves solely based on its specific threshold, allowing for multiple markets to resolve as 'Yes' or 'No' depending on the exact point differential in the third quarter.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows traders to express their own independent beliefs. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. These differences can present opportunities for informed traders who believe the market is mispricing the probability of a particular outcome. Analyzing these differences can be a valuable part of your research process.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders submit bids and asks for contracts. The price of a contract reflects the market's collective belief about the probability of a particular outcome occurring in the NFL 3rd quarter spread. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more people trade, the price fluctuates, providing a real-time assessment of expectations. Currently, the most actively traded outcome is Pittsburgh winning the 3rd quarter by over 3.5 points, though the market price will change based on trader activity and new information.
This market resolves around Sep 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread for the third quarter of the Pittsburgh versus New England game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the NFL, and the market will settle to 100 for the winning side of the spread and 0 for the losing side. Traders holding contracts on the correct outcome will receive a payout, while those on the incorrect side will forfeit their stake.
Several factors could influence the price of contracts in this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either team, particularly the quarterback or key offensive players, could significantly shift expectations. Changes in weather forecasts, especially if they suggest inclement conditions, might also impact the spread. Furthermore, any late-breaking news about team strategy or coaching decisions could move the market. Public sentiment, as reflected in social media and sports news, can also play a role, though to a lesser extent than concrete factors like player injuries.