TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 20, 2:58 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory for either Pittsburgh or New England specifically within the second quarter of their scheduled football game. Each market corresponds to a different point differential threshold that must be exceeded by the winning team during that quarter alone.
These markets resolve based solely on the point differential between Pittsburgh and New England during the second quarter of their game scheduled for September 20, 2026. Each market has a specific threshold that the winning team must exceed for the contract to resolve as 'Yes'. If New England wins the second quarter by more than the specified margin—ranging from 1.5 to 10.5 points—the corresponding 'New England wins 2Q by over X points' market resolves to 'Yes'. Conversely, if Pittsburgh wins the second quarter by more than the specified margin—ranging from 2.5 to 10.5 points—the corresponding 'Pittsburgh wins 2Q by over X points' market resolves to 'Yes'. Only points scored during the second quarter count toward these outcomes. No points from any other quarter contribute to the resolution of these markets. The markets are independent, with each representing a different threshold of victory, allowing for multiple markets to resolve as 'Yes' if the point differential exceeds several thresholds.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often incorporating information and perspectives beyond those considered by traditional sportsbooks. While sportsbook odds are set by professionals, this market allows anyone to trade, potentially leading to a more accurate assessment of probabilities. It’s common to see initial discrepancies between the two, but as the event approaches, the prices often converge as more information becomes available and traders refine their predictions. However, it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities, and neither guarantees the actual outcome of the game.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction format, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the second quarter. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that spread occurring. As more traders participate, the price adjusts based on supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by various factors, including news, injuries, and overall sentiment surrounding the game, all reflected in the collective actions of those trading on Kalshi.
This market resolves around Sep 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the actual point spread of the second quarter of the Pittsburgh versus New England game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the relevant sporting authorities. The final price of the contracts will reflect the actual spread, determining which traders successfully predicted the outcome. Traders holding contracts on the correct spread will receive a payout, while those on incorrect spreads will forfeit their investment.
Several factors could significantly impact the price of this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either team would likely cause movement, as would changes in weather forecasts that could affect the game's style. Significant shifts in public opinion, perhaps driven by expert analysis or unexpected developments, could also influence trading activity. Furthermore, large-volume trades by individual participants on Kalshi could create short-term price fluctuations. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for anyone looking to trade in this market before it resolves.