TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 27, 8:30 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory for either Pittsburgh or Buffalo during the second quarter of their scheduled football game. Each market corresponds to a specific point differential threshold that must be exceeded by the winning team to resolve positively.
All markets resolve based solely on the point differential between Pittsburgh and Buffalo during the second quarter of play in their game scheduled for August 27, 2026. Each market specifies a different threshold for the winning team's margin of victory: markets resolve to 'Yes' if Buffalo wins by more than 2.5, 3.5, 6.5, 7.5, or 10.5 points, or if Pittsburgh wins by more than 2.5, 3.5, 6.5, 7.5, or 10.5 points during that quarter. Only points scored in the second quarter count toward determining the outcome. The markets are independent, with each threshold representing a distinct condition for resolution.
On Kalshi, this market reflects trader sentiment through dynamic pricing, often showing sharper or more nuanced expectations than traditional sportsbook lines. While sportsbooks set fixed spreads based on broader public betting trends and risk management, prediction markets like this one adjust continuously as new information emerges. Traders may react faster to injuries, weather updates, or strategic shifts, potentially creating price gaps. For example, if a key player is unexpectedly benched, this market could move more aggressively than sportsbook odds, which might hold their lines longer to balance liability. The contrast provides a useful lens into how informed traders price the Pittsburgh vs Buffalo 2nd Quarter spread market versus the general betting public.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders manually set the odds for this market based on their expectations for the second-quarter point differential. The current top outcome reflects the aggregate wisdom of participants, displayed as a percentage chance. Volume of $6,118 shows the level of interest, and price fluctuations occur as new information about team strategies or player injuries emerges in the lead-up to the game.
This market resolves around Aug 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The official game stats will determine the point difference in the second quarter, and the market will settle based on that data. No further analysis or interpretation is needed — the numbers speak for themselves at that point.
Several real-time developments could shift expectations in this market before Aug 28, 2026. Quarterback performance — whether through injuries, interceptions, or scoring efficiency — will heavily influence trader sentiment. Coaching decisions such as play-calling tendencies or time-of-possession strategies may also sway odds. Weather conditions, especially if the game moves indoors or faces severe delays, could alter scoring dynamics. Lastly, momentum swings within the game itself, like a rapid series of touchdowns or field goals, often trigger rapid adjustments in trader positioning. All these factors combine to create a fluid market environment where expectations for the 2nd quarter spread can change dramatically hour by hour.